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<\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>We all have a huge normalcy bias \u2014\u00a0that is, the refusal to contemplate an imminent disaster. So it\u2019s hard to get your head around the idea that we may well be facing an unprecedented constitutional crisis come November. But then, none of what\u2019s going on in American politics these days is normal.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>In Donald Trump\u2019s case, we\u2019ve already sailed way past the edge of the known world. Yes, all things considered, it\u2019s unlikely that a former president \u2014\u00a0much less a potential president-elect \u2014\u00a0would find himself in jail or prison. Of course, it\u2019s also unlikely that a former president would find himself facing four separate criminal trials. Yet here we are.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>So what might really h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts & Themes & Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en in Trump\u2019s New York criminal trial? How might it play out if he is treated no better \u2014 but no worse \u2014 than any other criminal defendant?\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>Let\u2019s start with Trump\u2019s difficulties following the judge\u2019s orders, both in the courtroom and outside it. Judge Juan Merchan, who is presiding over Trump\u2019s New York criminal trial, has <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/donald-trump-gag-order-hush-money-juan-merchan-f182e7d5c27967b86a59277fd24743e4\">issued a gag order<\/a> preventing Defendant Trump from attacking people like witnesses and court personnel, though the judge has allowed Trump to continue to attack both him and the district attorney. If Trump violates this order \u2014and\u00a0he probably <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/donald-trump-gag-order-judge-juan-merchan\/\">already has<\/a> \u2014 he can be fined or imprisoned for contempt.<\/p>\n<p>Normally, a judge might, depending on how serious the violation is, begin by issuing a stern warning and, possibly, a fine. If the judge\u2019s orders continue to be ignored, the penalty will quickly escalate. Though sometimes it\u2019s only for a day and a judge will allow the person to purge their contempt by humbly apologizing and promising never to do it again, openly defiant people who repeatedly violate court orders eventually end up in jail \u2014\u00a0even ex-presidents.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>Judge Merchan will likely have even less tolerance for Trump\u2019s courtroom outbursts. No criminal judge will allow a defendant to control the courtroom, intimidate witnesses and influence the jury. Trump has <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/live-updates\/2024\/04\/16\/trump-hush-money-criminal-trial\/trump-gets-a-warning-00152578\">already been warned<\/a> about his behavior, and Merchan will react firmly if it continues. Because this behavior is so serious and threatens the integrity of the trial, there will be no <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/watch-movies-tv-seriess\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Watch Movies & TV Series\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">series<\/a> of escalating penalties. Instead, judges handle these situations by either removing a disruptive defendant from the courtroom or by ordering the defendant physically gagged. There is even Supreme Court <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/supreme.justia.com\/cases\/federal\/us\/397\/337\/\">precedent<\/a> holding that gagging an unruly defendant is sometimes \u201cthe fairest and most reasonable\u201d option in these situations.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>Suppose Trump is convicted. Will he actually go to jail? \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Lots of people think this is impossible, but it would certainly be possible for any other defendant. In Trump\u2019s case, he could, theoretically, be sentenced to anything between probation and a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nysenate.gov\/legislation\/laws\/PEN\/70.30\">maximum sentence<\/a> of 20 years if convicted on all counts. A sentence of 20 years, however, is extremely unlikely \u2014\u00a0almost impossible, in fact. The maximum Trump faces is probably four years, and his actual sentence, for <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nysenate.gov\/legislation\/laws\/PEN\/70.00\">several reasons<\/a>, would likely be substantially less. It might even be a term of probation, although, considering Trump\u2019s complete lack of remorse, some sort of custodial sentence is likely.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>Convicted defendants can be im<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>tely sent to jail pending sentencing. This is actually quite common after a felony conviction. Alternatively, a convicted defendant may remain free until sentencing. A judge may even grant bail pending appeal, which means that a defendant may remain outside of custody, even after being sentenced, until the appeal has been heard.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>Trump\u2019s case would normally be a good candidate for bail pending appeal. But much will depend on Trump\u2019s behavior during and after trial, because courts do not release people, especially after they have been convicted, if the judge believes they represent a threat to society. Judge Merchan has already <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-case-new-york-charges-indictment-what-comes-next\/\">warned Trump<\/a> to \u201crefrain from making comments or engaging in conduct that has the potential to incite violence, create civil unrest, or jeopardize the safety or well-being of any individuals.\u201d If Trump makes any effort to whip up his followers, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/politics\/trump-lit-that-fire-of-capitol-insurrection-jan-6-committee-report-says\">as he did<\/a> before the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack\">events of Jan. 6, 2021<\/a>, he will almost certainly find himself sent directly to jail.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>So are we likely to see Donald Trump gagged or jailed? That all depends on Trump. Perhaps he will behave himself. But these things are real possibilities for the former commander in chief, just as they are for any criminal defendant.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>The rule of law can sometimes be a harsh mistress. There is a very real possibility that one of our two major presidential candidates will be a convicted felon and serving time by November. That\u2019s bad enough. But if he is elected despite a conviction, then constitutional crises don\u2019t come much bigger than that.\u00a0<br \/>\u00a0<br \/>Yes, jailing a former and possibly future president would be unprecedented. But these are unprecedented times, and unprecedented things are going to happen. Trump facing jail, especially for contempt of court, is one of the less bizarre scenarios we are likely to see play out in the coming months.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/liberaldemocracy.substack.com\/\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/liberaldemocracy.substack.com\/\">Chris Truax <\/a>is a charter member of the Society for the Rule of Law and an appellate attorney.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMN63nwsw68G3Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/judiciary\/4615757-if-trump-gets-convicted-what-happens-next\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We all have a huge normalcy bias \u2014\u00a0that is, the refusal to contemplate an imminent disaster. So it\u2019s hard to get your head around the idea that we may well be facing an unprecedented constitutional crisis come November. But then, none of what\u2019s going on in American politics these days is normal.\u00a0\u00a0In Donald Trump\u2019s case,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-618120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=618120"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618120\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=618120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=618120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=618120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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