{"id":618996,"date":"2024-05-01T16:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-01T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/delusions-of-strong-arming-china-into-compliance-are-dangerous\/"},"modified":"2024-05-01T16:30:00","modified_gmt":"2024-05-01T13:30:00","slug":"delusions-of-strong-arming-china-into-compliance-are-dangerous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/delusions-of-strong-arming-china-into-compliance-are-dangerous\/","title":{"rendered":"#Delusions of strong-arming China into compliance are dangerous"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/xi_jinping_03112024_AP_AP24072431756368.jpg?w=900\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>            <iframe title=\"Audio Article\" id=\"instaread_iframe\" name=\"instaread_playlist\" scrolling=\"no\" allow=\"autoplay\" style=\"display:block\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" frameborder=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>What is the end<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/game\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" title=\"Game\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">game<\/a> of U.S. policy toward China? Can the U.S. avoid a war with China? Much of the debate about how U.S. policy should cope with an ambitious, reemergent China, turns on those questions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In what seems at once both a job <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>lication and a declaration of war, two prominent China critics \u2014 former Trump Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger and just retired chair of House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) \u2014 offer an answer in a new essay in<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/no-substitute-victory-pottinger-gallagher\">\u00a0<\/a><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/no-substitute-victory-pottinger-gallagher\">Foreign Affairs<\/a>: If the U.S. is tough enough, it can make China go away via regime change.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr1_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Their approach to victory is a zero-sum, take-no-prisoners confrontation. The U.S. must end normal trade status and decouple. Spend up to 6 percent of GDP on defense \u2014 around $2 trillion for a nation with a<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/money\/2024\/01\/16\/what-national-debt-means-for-you\/72111112007\/\">\u00a0$34 trillion debt<\/a>. An unconstrained conventional and nuclear arms race would ensue.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As if current U.S.-China volatility were not enough, we need \u201cgreater friction,\u201d and to adopt \u201crhetoric and policies\u201d that are \u201cuncomfortably confrontational.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>You get the picture.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In a bit of nostalgia posing as strategy, the authors seek to replicate the Cold War against a one-dimensional USSR. They deride the U.S.-USSR d\u00e9tente as a failure and propose a course of maximum economic and military pressure on China. The problem with this failure of imagination is that our issue with China is a qualitatively different predicament.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>China is an\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/fandd\/issues\/2023\/12\/China-bumpy-path-Eswar-Prasad#:~:text=Measured%20at%20market%20exchange%20rates,GDP%20it%20registered%20in%201990.\">$18 trillion economy<\/a>\u00a0with which the U.S. is deeply interdependent, one of the world\u2019s\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/02\/26\/china-still-top-trading-partner-for-many-countries-says-adb.html#:~:text=However%2C%20the%20economic%20powerhouse%20remains,U.S.%20think%20tank%20Wilson%20Center.\">largest trading powers<\/a>,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/sccei.fsi.stanford.edu\/china-briefs\/chinas-overseas-lending#:~:text=China%20became%20the%20world's%20largest,widely%20used%20official%20debt%20statistics.\">its largest creditor<\/a>, a leading\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.techradar.com\/pro\/the-most-powerful-machine-yet-assembled-on-earth-china-quietly-launched-record-breaking-supercomputer-and-someone-virtually-deconstructed-its-processor\">technology power<\/a>\u00a0and a mature\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nti.org\/countries\/china\/\">nuclear weapons<\/a>\u00a0state.<\/p>\n<p>As we have seen in the current trade and tech war, Beijing is willing and able to engage in tit-for-tat retaliation. The trajectory of such an approach would likely be an economically destabilizing race to the bottom and a fair probability of military conflict with a chance of nuclear escalation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr2_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>In the Pottinger-Gallagher\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/no-substitute-victory-pottinger-gallagher\">vision<\/a>, squeezing Beijing into acquiescence would produce \u201cChinese people \u2014 from\u00a0ruling elites to everyday citizens\u201d who \u201cwould find inspiration to explore new models of development and governance.\u201d\u202f<\/p>\n<p>Of course, we could always get lucky. Few tears would be shed if China were rid of the CCP. But there is scant evidence that the\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/politics\/article\/3226150\/chinas-communist-party-reaches-98-million-members-youth-membership-fell-due-strict-screening\">98 million-member party<\/a>\u00a0is going away any time soon, or that the U.S. has the agency to make it happen. Magical thinking is not a sound basis for policy. U.S. efforts<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cato.org\/policy-analysis\/more-things-change-more-they-stay-same-failure-regime-change-operations\">\u00a0<\/a><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cato.org\/policy-analysis\/more-things-change-more-they-stay-same-failure-regime-change-operations\">at regime change<\/a>\u00a0have rarely ended well.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Foreign policy is often a choice between bad and worse options.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In a 2019<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/china\/competition-with-china-catastrophe-sullivan-campbell\">\u00a0<\/a><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/china\/competition-with-china-catastrophe-sullivan-campbell\">Foreign Affairs essay<\/a>\u00a0two architects of the administration\u2019s China policy, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, foreshadowed current policy. They argued that the error of the previous engagement policy was to assume the U.S. could produce \u201cchange in China\u2019s economic and political system.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWashington risks making a similar mistake today, by assuming that competition can succeed in transforming China where engagement failed \u2014 this time forcing capitulation or even collapse,\u201d\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/china\/competition-with-china-catastrophe-sullivan-campbell\">they wrote<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Sullivan and Campbell proposed the U.S. eschew a zero-sum end state and seek \u201ca steady state of clear-eyed coexistence on terms favorable to U.S. interests and values.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr3_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Reality check \u2014 that\u2019s pretty much what Biden\u2019s China policy is trying to do.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Pottinger and Gallagher\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/no-substitute-victory-pottinger-gallagher\">concede<\/a>\u00a0that retaining Trump tariffs, blocking access to high-end <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">technology<\/a>, qualitatively strengthening U.S. alliances and expanding a network of regional security arrangements made China a \u201cbright spot\u201d of Biden\u2019s beleaguered foreign policy.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In fact, the administration is already doing much of what they advocate. But in their view, Biden is too soft: He merely wants to manage a competitive coexistence with China and find a stable balance of power.\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr4_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>The authors\u2019 critique of Biden is accurate. The question is whether anyone has a better idea. Team Biden wouldn\u2019t disagree with the Pottinger-Gallagher depiction of Beijing\u2019s relentless ambition to upend the U.S. and create a Sino-centric world order.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In a<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/the-administrations-approach-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china\/\">\u00a0<\/a><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/the-administrations-approach-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china\/\">major policy speech<\/a>, Secretary of State Antony Blinken minced few words regarding China\u2019s intentions and capabilities: \u201cChina is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But Blinken\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/the-administrations-approach-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china\/\">injected<\/a>\u00a0a dose of realism reflecting the administration\u2019s approach: \u201cChina is also integral to the global economy and to our ability to solve challenges from climate to COVID.\u202fPut simply, the United States and China have to deal with each other for the foreseeable future.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr5_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>Thus, President Biden\u2019s frequent calls for \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/news\/biden-wants-to-reopen-communication-set-guard-rails-in-xi-talks-white-house-01668391506\">guardrails<\/a>\u201d to prevent tensions from spiraling into conflict and current diplomacy trying to stabilize the U.S.-China relationship.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There may be no satisfying answer to the China question, the historic dilemma of how a leading power copes with a rising one. They often end in conflict. For the U.S., it is the centerpiece of a larger problem of how to adapt to an increasingly multipolar world and the rise of the rest, with wealth and power shifting from West to East.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The current U.S.-China predicament is a complex accumulation of 50 years of interaction and interdependence. One result is a<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/277679\/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-china-since-2006\">\u00a0<\/a><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/277679\/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-china-since-2006\">$575 billion trade<\/a>\u00a0relationship \u2014 even after derisking by both sides. China is the largest trading partner of most U.S. allies and partners and a key driver of global growth.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<aside class=\"ad-unit ad-unit--mr6_ab\"><\/aside>\n<p>A trend of mutual demonization and deepening distrust stalks efforts to stabilize the relationship, largely due to Beijing\u2019s overreach and Washington\u2019s overreaction.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>U.S. fears notwithstanding, there is a large gap between China\u2019s ambitions and reality. Similarly, grasping the limits of U.S. power would be a big help in getting our China policy right.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Robert A. Manning is a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center and its Global Foresight and China programs. He previously served as senior counselor to the undersecretary of State for global affairs, as a member of the U.S. secretary of state\u2019s policy planning staff and on the National Intelligence Council Strategic Futures Group. Follow him on X\/<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a> @Rmanning4<\/em><em>.<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMN63nwsw68G3Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/international\/4632623-delusions-of-strong-arming-china-into-compliance-are-dangerous\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is the endgame of U.S. policy toward China? Can the U.S. avoid a war with China? Much of the debate about how U.S. policy should cope with an ambitious, reemergent China, turns on those questions.\u00a0\u00a0 In what seems at once both a job application and a declaration of war, two prominent China critics \u2014&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":618997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/thehill.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/xi_jinping_03112024_AP_AP24072431756368.jpg?w=1280","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[134344,92499,134343,4941,90482,124783,135638,991,137829,71525,4947,141939,150022,137785,150023,70588],"class_list":["post-618996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-administration","tag-antony-blinken","tag-campaign","tag-donald-trump","tag-house","tag-international","tag-jake-sullivan","tag-joe-biden","tag-mike-gallagher","tag-national-security","tag-opinion","tag-politics-of-the-united-states","tag-us-china-policy","tag-us-china-relations","tag-us-china-trade-relations","tag-video"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618996","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=618996"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618996\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/618997"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=618996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=618996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=618996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}