{"id":628130,"date":"2024-07-19T04:19:40","date_gmt":"2024-07-19T01:19:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/how-does-nate-silver-predict-biden-will-fare-in-the-election\/"},"modified":"2024-07-19T04:19:40","modified_gmt":"2024-07-19T01:19:40","slug":"how-does-nate-silver-predict-biden-will-fare-in-the-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/how-does-nate-silver-predict-biden-will-fare-in-the-election\/","title":{"rendered":"#How does Nate Silver predict Biden will fare in the election?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2e47a29cb65\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2e47a29cb65\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/how-does-nate-silver-predict-biden-will-fare-in-the-election\/#Who_is_Nate_Silver\" >Who is Nate Silver?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<div id=\"\">\n<div id=\"videoWrap\" class=\"spacer-large videoWrap\" style=\"position:relative\"><media-video video-id=\"74451038007\" title=\"What happened at day 3 of the Republican National Convention?\" poster=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/07\/18\/USAT\/74451039007-clean.jpg?crop=1919,1079,x0,y0\" util-module-path=\"elements\/media\" placement=\"snow-video-story-priority\"><\/p>\n<div id=\"uwVideoPlaceholder\" slot=\"placeholder\" style=\"z-index:19;width:100%;padding-bottom:56.25%;position:relative\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;right:0;bottom:0;width:100%;height:100%;z-index:2\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/07\/18\/USAT\/74451039007-clean.jpg?crop=1919,1079,x0,y0\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"vidplaybtn\" style=\"display:-moz-box;display:-ms-flexbox;display:-webkit-flex;display:flex;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,.4);border:2px solid #fff;border-radius:80px;cursor:pointer;height:80px;width:80px;position:absolute;top:50%;left:50%;transform:translate(-50%,-50%);z-index:10\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"vidplayicon\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/appservices\/universal-web\/universal\/icons\/icon-play-alt-white.svg\" alt=\"play\" style=\"height:40px;margin:auto 18px auto 27px;width:40px\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div slot=\"videoDetails\" id=\"videoDetails\" class=\"videoDetails\" style=\"padding-top:8px;padding-bottom:8px\">\n<div id=\"videoDetailsContainer\" class=\"videoDetailsContainer\" hidden=\"\">What h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ened at day 3 of the Republican National Convention?<\/p>\n<p>USA Today chief political corespondent Phillip M. Bailey recaps day 3 of the Republican National Convention.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/media-video><\/div>\n<p>While Republicans descended upon Milwaukee, Wisconsin this week for the Republican National Convention, President Joe Biden continued to face calls to step down. Questions over his turbulent future heightened after he announced his positive COVID status on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<partner-banner util-module-path=\"elements\/partner\" class=\"spacer-large\" min-height=\"600\" fluid=\"\" outstream=\"\" momentum=\"\"><\/partner-banner>\n<p>Concern over his age is nothing new, but at the heart of it all, Democrats are unsure if Biden, 81, can win against competitor Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Nate Silver, a statistician and writer, has been reporting on the presidential polling numbers amid the political hysteria, and Thursday, he took to X, formerly known as <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, to share an update on Biden&#8217;s chances of winning in November.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"exclude-from-newsgate\"><strong style=\"margin-right:3px\">More: <\/strong>RNC 2024 live updates: Steve Witkoff, Tucker Carlson take the stage; Donald Trump set to speak<\/span><\/p>\n<partner-banner util-module-path=\"elements\/partner\" fluid=\"\" bottom=\"\" lazy=\"\" class=\"spacer-large\" min-height=\"390\" outstream=\"\"><\/partner-banner>\n<h2 class=\"presto-h2 wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Who_is_Nate_Silver\"><\/span>Who is Nate Silver?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><media-image image-set=\"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/07\/18\/NSTN\/74463322007-usatsi-9298152-168410791-lowres.jpg bestCrop, https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/07\/18\/NSTN\/74463322007-usatsi-9298152-168410791-lowres.jpg?crop=1163,873,x0,y0 4:3, https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/07\/18\/NSTN\/74463322007-usatsi-9298152-168410791-lowres.jpg?crop=1107,1475,x0,y0 3:4, https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/07\/18\/NSTN\/74463322007-usatsi-9298152-168410791-lowres.jpg?crop=1163,654,x0,y0 16:9\" image-alt=\"\" credit=\"Brad Penner, Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports\" caption=\"ESPN correspondent Nate Silver explains the odds of the NBA draft lottery during the NBA draft lottery at New York Hilton Midtown Manhattan, New York on May 17, 2016.\" orientation=\"vertical\" class=\"spacer-large\" util-module-path=\"elements\/media\"><\/media-image><\/p>\n<p>Silver is a statistician and writer who founded and was the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, now known as 538, after ABC <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> acquired the company, a website that publishes political polls.<\/p>\n<partner-inline util-module-path=\"elements\/partner\" class=\"spacer-large\" placement=\"native-article_link\" sizes=\"[[300, 250], [3, 3]]\" min-height=\"250\" fluid=\"\" outstream=\"\"><\/partner-inline>\n<p>So, what&#8217;s his take on the race between Biden and Trump? Simply put, things are not looking good for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p><cta-atoms-container-inline util-module-path=\"elements\/cta\" class=\"spacer-large\"><\/cta-atoms-container-inline><\/p>\n<p>After Biden&#8217;s interview with George Stephanopoulos, the statistician said it would be best if Biden stepped down in an <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/1809360631620936000\">X post<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Most recently, Silver posted an update to X from his Silver Bulletin blog. He wrote, &#8220;Pretty<a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/1814022035212796238\"> rough polling day for Biden<\/a>, reversing a slight rebound from earlier this week.&#8221;<\/p>\n<partner-banner util-module-path=\"elements\/partner\" fluid=\"\" bottom=\"\" lazy=\"\" class=\"spacer-large\" min-height=\"600\" outstream=\"\" momentum=\"\"><\/partner-banner>\n<p>The chart shows Biden&#8217;s chances of winning being much lower than Trump&#8217;s from the start, but they have dropped in recent days.<\/p>\n<partner-inline util-module-path=\"elements\/partner\" placement=\"native-article_link\" sizes=\"[[300, 250], [3, 3]]\" min-height=\"250\" fluid=\"\" outstream=\"\"><\/partner-inline>\n<p>Silver also co-hosts a podcast called Risky Business with Maria Konnikova, where he said, &#8220;I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s capable of running a normal campaign at all,&#8221; in a July 10 episode titled &#8220;How to Convince Biden to Quit.&#8221; Biden&#8217;s only falling further behind, and there&#8217;s no way America&#8217;s electing him, going by his gut reaction, he continued.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans have sunk their teeth into whispers of the president stepping down, saying they won&#8217;t agree to a vice-presidential debate for newly nominated running mate JD Vance because the Democratic ticket is still unclear.<\/p>\n<lit-timestamp class=\"column ten-column no-gutter spacer-small\" slot=\"timestamp\" publishdate=\"2024-07-19 01:19:40 +0000 UTC\" updatedate=\"2024-07-19 01:19:40 +0000 UTC\"><\/lit-timestamp><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMN63nwsw68G3Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2024\/07\/18\/nate-silver-biden-election-odds-poll-twitter\/74462858007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened at day 3 of the Republican National Convention? USA Today chief political corespondent Phillip M. Bailey recaps day 3 of the Republican National Convention. While Republicans descended upon Milwaukee, Wisconsin this week for the Republican National Convention, President Joe Biden continued to face calls to step down. Questions over his turbulent future heightened&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":628131,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.gannett-cdn.com\/authoring\/authoring-images\/2024\/07\/18\/NSTN\/74463322007-usatsi-9298152-168410791-lowres.jpg?auto=webp&crop=1163,654,x0,y0&format=pjpg&width=1200","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-628130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628130","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=628130"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628130\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/628131"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=628130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=628130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=628130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}