{"id":64889,"date":"2020-08-31T18:46:00","date_gmt":"2020-08-31T15:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/"},"modified":"2020-08-31T18:46:00","modified_gmt":"2020-08-31T15:46:00","slug":"erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/","title":{"rendered":"#Erin O\u2019Toole\u2019s victory in 15 key charts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a23e96696456\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a23e96696456\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/#LESLYN_LEWISS_SURGE\" >LESLYN LEWIS\u2019S SURGE<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/#TINY_VOTER_POOLS\" >TINY VOTER POOLS<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/#VOTE_DROP-OFF\" >VOTE DROP-OFF<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/#2019_WINNERS\" >2019 WINNERS<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/#THE_416-905_VOTE\" >THE 416-905 VOTE<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/#URBAN-RURAL_DIVIDE\" >URBAN-RURAL DIVIDE<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/#VISIBLE_MINORITIES\" >VISIBLE MINORITIES<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#Erin O\u2019Toole\u2019s victory in 15 key charts<\/strong>&#8221;<br \/>\nConservative leadership candidates won in unexpected places and fell flat in others. And when Leslyn Lewis dropped off the ballot, the upstart candidate&#8217;s voters played a decisive role in crowning O&#8217;Toole<\/p>\n<div>\n                                                                        Most party leadership conventions follow one of two paths. The most boring contests end with a frontrunner winning on the first ballot\u2014or even if they need a few candidates to drop off before securing the win, they lead the whole way and secure a comfortable victory. The other path sees an underdog rise over the course of balloting, collecting the support of eliminated candidates and vaulting past the perceived frontrunner. Dalton McGuinty caught up to Gerard Kennedy in 1996. Stephane Dion eclipsed<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Michael Ignatieff in 2006. Andrew Scheer skirted past Maxime Bernier in 2017. And last month, Erin O\u2019Toole bested Peter MacKay after trailing in early rounds of voting.<\/p>\n<p>The final ballot results tell a simple story. O\u2019Toole won by scooping up the second-choice votes of the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">social<\/a> conservatives vying for the Tory crown. Scheer benefited from similar patterns three years ago. But a detailed breakdown of the riding-by-riding results tells a fascinating story that reveals the power of so-con voters and the regional dynamics that pushed O\u2019Toole over the top. Leslyn Lewis, the upstart of the race who tacked to the right of the two frontrunners, swept Saskatchewan in the second round. On the final ballot, MacKay salvaged much of the Greater Toronto Area, winning 35 ridings to O\u2019Toole\u2019s 18\u2014including his Durham riding and a clutch of surrounding districts. And Derek Sloan, whose share of votes bested the combined haul of the two most prominent social conservatives in 2017, somehow eked out a win on the island of Montreal.<\/p>\n<p>These charts illustrate the leadership race\u2019s dramatic evolution between ballots, where candidates exceeded expectations\u2014and fell flat\u2014in unexpected places and how O\u2019Toole survived a second ballot to win it all. (See the full results here.)<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"LESLYN_LEWISS_SURGE\"><\/span>LESLYN LEWIS\u2019S SURGE<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Leslyn Lewis, a one-time candidate in suburban Toronto, raised more money and made more noise online than almost anyone expected. And the riding-by-riding breakdown shows just how close Lewis came to finishing second on the second ballot. After one round, she won or tied 44 ridings in six provinces, including a stunning 13 in Saskatchewan, and placed second in 79 ridings.<\/p>\n<p>When Sloan dropped off, Lewis hoovered up his support and won 90 ridings on the second ballot. She flipped 25 ridings that had favoured O\u2019Toole after the first round, where she turned a combined four-point deficit (30.78% to 26.85%) into a nearly five-point advantage (40.33% to 35.81%). Lewis also swiped another 18 from MacKay on that ballot. Of course, when Lewis dropped off, all but three of her 90 ridings flipped to O\u2019Toole.<\/p>\n<p>Lewis\u2019s second-ballot performance might have briefly made both of her rivals nervous, even if she ultimately fell short. The upstart third-place finisher nabbed 30 per cent of total available points before dropping off. But that included a dismal performance in Quebec, where she won just a single riding on the second ballot and topped 30 per cent in just seven ridings. In the rest of Canada, Lewis leapfrogged O\u2019Toole and finished just a hair\u20140.44 percentage points\u2014behind MacKay.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"TINY_VOTER_POOLS\"><\/span>TINY VOTER POOLS<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>O\u2019Toole\u2019s campaign knew that the party\u2019s points system made every riding equally valuable. Districts with a handful of votes were just as valuable as Tory strongholds. The Alberta riding of Foothills, a wide expanse south and west of Calgary, attracted 2,079 voters. Just 28 people voted in Montreal\u2019s Bourassa riding, where Sloan won a tiny plurality of votes on the first ballot (just 10 was enough). In Foothills, there were roughly 61 residents for every vote cast in the race. In Bourassa, that measure leapt to 3,608. Of the top 20 ridings with the most residents per vote cast\u2014they were all in Quebec\u2014O\u2019Toole won 15 on the first ballot. (Where there were the most voters as a share of residents, O\u2019Toole won only 11 of the top 20\u2014with Lewis taking six and MacKay only three.)<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"VOTE_DROP-OFF\"><\/span>VOTE DROP-OFF<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Just how many Conservative voters would provide a ranking of all four candidates<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>was a mystery during the race, but Lewis and Sloan voters were widely predicted to have limited their selections to those candidates. Of the 20 ridings with the most drop-off between the first and final ballots, O\u2019Toole and MacKay each won just three on the first ballot. Lewis won half of them, and Sloan took the rest. On the second ballot, Lewis swept every one of them. When she dropped away, O\u2019Toole took all but one, even as he still only captured a fraction of her support. Those were largely rural ridings across Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and they illustrated both Lewis\u2019s strength\u2014her supporters were loyal\u2014and also what could have been had she been more competitive in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2019_WINNERS\"><\/span>2019 WINNERS<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>On the first ballot, MacKay won where Conservatives need to win in the next <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a> election: ridings now held by Liberals. MacKay won in 116 Liberal-controlled districts to O\u2019Toole\u2019s 36. But MacKay won fewer Tory ridings (34) than Lewis (37) and O\u2019Toole (48). If the Conservatives hope to expand their Quebec caucus, their road to more MPs could drive through Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois ridings. O\u2019Toole, aided by a low turnout in those areas, won all but two Bloc ridings on the first ballot (MacKay held on to Beauport\u2014C\u00f4te-de-Beaupr\u00e9\u2014\u00cele d\u2019Orl\u00e9ans\u2014Charlevoix, briefly held by the Tories between 2015 and 2019, in the final count).<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"THE_416-905_VOTE\"><\/span>THE 416-905 VOTE<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>MacKay, who for 18 years represented a Nova Scotia riding, is not from the Greater Toronto Area. O\u2019Toole, a sitting Ontario MP, represents a riding on the GTA\u2019s eastern edge. When Conservatives win most of the seats in the so-called \u201c905\u201d region, they have formed government. When they lose those seats, Liberals win power. On the leadership race\u2019s first ballot, MacKay ran away with the 905 outer suburbs and the 416 ridings that comprise Toronto\u2019s inner suburbs and downtown core. By the final ballot, the native Nova Scotian who\u2019s recently lived in Toronto for several years retained most of those seats. O\u2019Toole, though, closed the 416 gap to 14-11. He won ridings closer to the core like Davenport, Parkdale-High Park and Toronto-Danforth that almost never vote Conservative when Liberals and New Democrats are on the ballot.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"URBAN-RURAL_DIVIDE\"><\/span>URBAN-RURAL DIVIDE<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>On the first ballot, MacKay dominated urban ridings that tend not to vote Conservative\u2014but which, his camp might argue, could be more competitive under a leader like MacKay. He took 62 per cent of cities (and only about 30 per cent of rural Canada) on that ballot. But O\u2019Toole had rebounded by the final ballot, winning 118 urban ridings to MacKay\u2019s 57. Sloan and Lewis\u2019s departures from the ballot gave O\u2019Toole enough of a boost that he finished with more urban wins than MacKay\u2019s 109 first-ballot wins.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"VISIBLE_MINORITIES\"><\/span>VISIBLE MINORITIES<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A strong showing in suburban Mississauga and Brampton contributed to MacKay\u2019s commanding lead on the first ballot among ridings where the majority of residents identified as visible minorities as defined by Statistics Canada. O\u2019Toole\u2019s initial strength looked much different, as he racked up wins in majority-white ridings. Lewis, the first woman of colour to run for the party leadership, didn\u2019t win a single riding where the majority of residents identified as visible minority (the closest she came was a win in Coquitlam\u2014Port Coquitlam, B.C., where that number was 46.8 per cent). By the final ballot, O\u2019Toole had managed to erode much of MacKay\u2019s early strength.<\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/general\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">General category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>if you want to <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/watch-movies-tv-seriess\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Watch Movies &amp; TV Series\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">watch Movies<\/a> or Tv Shows go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/dizi.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dizi.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a> <\/span> for forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.macleans.ca\/politics\/ottawa\/erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#Erin O\u2019Toole\u2019s victory in 15 key charts&#8221; Conservative leadership candidates won in unexpected places and fell flat in others. And when Leslyn Lewis dropped off the ballot, the upstart candidate&#8217;s voters played a decisive role in crowning O&#8217;Toole Most party leadership conventions follow one of two paths. The most boring contests end with a frontrunner&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":64890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[67909,67806,67910,67908,67911,67805,67912,32681],"class_list":["post-64889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-derek-sloan","tag-editors-picks","tag-erin-otoole","tag-erin-otooles-victory-in-15-key-charts","tag-leslyn-lewis","tag-ottawa","tag-peter-mackay","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64889\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}