{"id":694329,"date":"2025-10-11T21:10:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-11T18:10:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/what-could-burst-the-ai-bubble\/"},"modified":"2025-10-11T21:10:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T18:10:16","slug":"what-could-burst-the-ai-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/what-could-burst-the-ai-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"What could burst the AI bubble?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a35e1c1932fc\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a35e1c1932fc\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/what-could-burst-the-ai-bubble\/#In_search_of_profit\" >In search of profit<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"article-gallery lightGallery\">\n<div data-thumb=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/tmb\/2025\/ai-chip-1.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/hires\/2025\/ai-chip-1.jpg\" data-sub-html=\"Credit: Unsplash\/CC0 Public Domain\">\n<figure class=\"article-img\">\n            <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/scx1.b-cdn.net\/csz\/news\/800a\/2025\/ai-chip-1.jpg\" alt=\"ai chip\" title=\"Credit: Unsplash\/CC0 Public Domain\" width=\"800\" height=\"500\"\/><figcaption class=\"text-darken text-low-up text-truncate-js text-truncate mt-3\">\n                Credit: Unsplash\/CC0 Public Domain<br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Some of the world&#8217;s biggest tech firms have soared in value over the last year. As AI evolves at pace, there are hopes that it will improve lives in ways that people could never have imagined a decade ago\u2014in sectors as diverse as health care, employment and scientific discovery.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/topics\/openai-24920\" target=\"_blank\">OpenAI<\/a> is now worth <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/phoebeliu\/2025\/10\/09\/-billionaires-oracle-openai-amd-nvidia-450-billion-richer-ai-infrastructure-deals\/\" target=\"_blank\">US$500 billion<\/a> (\u00a3373 billion), compared with US$157 billion last October. Another firm, Anthropic, has almost <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/fundrise.com\/education\/anthropic-valuation-triples-in-just-six-months\" target=\"_blank\">trebled its valuation<\/a>. But the <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/oct\/08\/bank-of-england-warns-of-growing-risk-that-ai-bubble-could-burst\" target=\"_blank\">Bank of England<\/a> has now warned of a possible rapid &#8220;correction&#8221; due to its concerns about these staggering valuation rises.<\/p>\n<p>The question is whether these values are realistic\u2014or based on hype, excitement and unfounded optimism for the potential of AI. Put simply, is AI&#8217;s value today a product of what AI will do in future or what people hope it may do? Ultimately, we will only really know if it&#8217;s a bubble if it bursts\u2014though the warning signs are evident today.<\/p>\n<p>With hindsight, many things that h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en in a bubble may sound exceedingly optimistic. If you take many headlines and replace the word AI with the word computers it often sounds a lot more naive.<\/p>\n<p>But, predicting the path of technological change is hard. Back in 2000, the Daily Mail declared the internet could be a <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/markcarrigan.net\/2024\/02\/17\/daily-mail-2000-the-internet-may-just-be-a-passing-fad-as-millions-give-up-on-it\/\" target=\"_blank\">passing fad<\/a>. Just a few months earlier the dotcom boom had peaked.<\/p>\n<p>                                                                                                        <!-- TechX - News - In-article --><\/p>\n<p>A burst bubble may not change the end of the journey. The internet was not a passing fad. However, bubbles are extremely disruptive and affect people in very real ways. Stocks fall, pensions suffer, unemployment rises and investment is wasted. Real potential is crowded out in the hype and mania to focus all investment in a small number of stocks and firms.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, we have the first sign of a bubble\u2014a rapid rise in valuations. If these correct and fall we will have a bubble. If these valuations continue to rise we could be seeing a new sustained market that is focused on the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">technology<\/a> of the future.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, it might be that these valuations plateau. What happens then depends on whether people have invested in the belief that prices will always rise.<\/p>\n<p>Consider a situation where people believe\u2014as the Bank of England does\u2014that AI firms&#8217; valuations <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/oct\/08\/bank-of-england-warns-of-growing-risk-that-ai-bubble-could-burst#:~:text=Continued%20hype%20and%20optimism%20about,March%20to%20%24170bn%20last%20month\" target=\"_blank\">may be &#8220;stretched.&#8221;<\/a> It&#8217;s helpful to consider what these valuations are based on. Investment is simply a bet that AI increases profitability for the firms involved. These massive valuations are bets that AI will hugely increase future profitability.<\/p>\n<p>In some cases, these are bets that AI will improve in capabilities towards some kind of &#8220;artificial superintelligence&#8221; that can do everything a human can do\u2014or more. This could raise the living standards of everyone on Earth. Leading computer scientist Stuart Russell estimates the value of that at <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/programmes\/articles\/3pVB9hLv8TdGjSdJv4CmYjC\/nine-things-you-should-know-about-ai\" target=\"_blank\">US$14 quadrillion<\/a>\u2014investors are buying a claim on that outcome too.<\/p>\n<p>If investors begin to fear that AI profits won&#8217;t materialize, then they will try to get their money back. This realization can appear quite suddenly and can be prompted by seemingly minor events. It doesn&#8217;t require a big needle to pop a bubble.<\/p>\n<p>A <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/SB953335580704470544\" target=\"_blank\">US article<\/a> published in March 2000 warned that internet companies were fast running out of money. This caused many people to <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2000\/apr\/01\/5\" target=\"_blank\">rethink their investments<\/a><\/p>\n<p>At this stage of the bubble, investment excitement had spread to everyday investors. These regular people balanced their fear of missing out with a fear that they were investing in something new that they didn&#8217;t know much about. For many, an article in a popular magazine suggesting they may have made a mistake tipped the scales towards caution. They began to sell their dotcom stocks.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"In_search_of_profit\"><\/span>In search of profit<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>It may come as a surprise to some that, despite its increasing valuations, OpenAI does not yet <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Business\/wireStory\/openai-now-worth-500-billion-possibly-making-worlds-126162606\" target=\"_blank\">make a profit<\/a>. It may require <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.saastr.com\/bloomberg-openai-to-hit-12-7-billion-this-year-but-wont-be-profitable-until-125-billion\/\" target=\"_blank\">ten times more revenue<\/a> to do so.<\/p>\n<p>A US$500 billion valuation is quite something for a company that reportedly lost <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/oct\/08\/openai-multibillion-dollar-deals-exuberance-circular-nvidia-amd\" target=\"_blank\">US$7.8 billion<\/a> in the first half of this year. Some of this value appears to flow from a <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/oct\/08\/openai-multibillion-dollar-deals-exuberance-circular-nvidia-amd\" target=\"_blank\">new deal<\/a> between OpenAI and Nvidia where Nvidia will invest in OpenAI and OpenAI will buy Nvidia chips. This circular financing keeps everything afloat for now, but at some point investors will need to see returns.<\/p>\n<p>AI firms more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>ly <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/09\/30\/tech\/scale-ai-making-money-meta\" target=\"_blank\">do not appear to be profitable<\/a> at the moment. Investors are not putting their money into today&#8217;s losses\u2014they are betting on an AI future.<\/p>\n<p>It is of course perfectly feasible that AI firms will develop business models to increase their profitability. OpenAI is exploring <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/openai-looks-to-online-advertising-deal-ai-driven-ads-will-be-hard-for-consumers-to-spot-264377\" target=\"_blank\">advertising options<\/a> and allowing chatbots to recommend products.<\/p>\n<p>Using AI to deliver these messages is a viable option, though they will have to avoid the <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/behavioural-public-policy\/article\/dark-patterns-and-sludge-audits-an-integrated-approach\/8675A269B8FE79D2ECE0A8952D182C0B\" target=\"_blank\">tricks and manipulations<\/a> associated with online platforms, such as when hotel websites announce that rooms are about to sell out. We believe that AI can <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/uk\/advisor\/personal-finance\/dark-patterns\/\" target=\"_blank\">increase the power<\/a> of these manipulations and we wonder how persuasive chatbots may be in their recommendations.<\/p>\n<p>However, the big four\u2014Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon\u2014are this year spending the equivalent of the <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/oct\/08\/openai-multibillion-dollar-deals-exuberance-circular-nvidia-amd\" target=\"_blank\">GDP of Portugal<\/a> on AI infrastructure. This is not investment in new targeted ads, it is investment in an AI future. The bubble will burst if and when this future is in doubt.<\/p>\n<div class=\"d-inline-block text-medium my-4\">\n                                                Provided by<br \/>\n                                                                                                    The Conversation<br \/>\n                                                    \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"icon_open\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<use href=\"https:\/\/techx.b-cdn.net\/tmpl\/v2\/img\/svg\/sprite.svg#icon_open\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\"\/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/svg><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"article-main__note mt-4\">\n                                                This article is republished from <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-could-burst-the-ai-bubble-267136\" target=\"_blank\">original article<\/a>.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/267136\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"\/>\n                                            <\/p>\n<p>                                        <!-- print only --><\/p>\n<div class=\"d-none d-print-block\">\n<p>\n                                                <strong>Citation<\/strong>:<br \/>\n                                                What could burst the AI bubble? (2025, October 11)<br \/>\n                                                retrieved 11 October 2025<br \/>\n                                                from https:\/\/techxplore.com\/<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news<\/a>\/2025-10-ai.html\n                                            <\/p>\n<p>\n                                            This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no<br \/>\n                                            part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.\n                                            <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script id=\"facebook-jssdk\" async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/sdk.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMN63nwsw68G3Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more Like this articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Science category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/techxplore.com\/news\/2025-10-ai.html\" target=\"_blank\" >Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Credit: Unsplash\/CC0 Public Domain Some of the world&#8217;s biggest tech firms have soared in value over the last year. As AI evolves at pace, there are hopes that it will improve lives in ways that people could never have imagined a decade ago\u2014in sectors as diverse as health care, employment and scientific discovery. OpenAI is&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":694330,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/scx2.b-cdn.net\/gfx\/news\/hires\/2025\/ai-chip-1.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-694329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sciencee"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=694329"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694329\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/694330"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=694329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=694329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=694329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}