{"id":71114,"date":"2020-09-19T14:00:03","date_gmt":"2020-09-19T11:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics\/"},"modified":"2020-09-19T14:00:03","modified_gmt":"2020-09-19T11:00:03","slug":"5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics\/","title":{"rendered":"#5 things self-proclaimed COVID-19 \u2018experts\u2019 get wrong about statistics"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a259911c6f36\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a259911c6f36\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics\/#1_Its_the_infection_rate_thats_scary_not_the_death_rate\" >1. It\u2019s the infection rate that\u2019s scary, not the death rate<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics\/#2_Exponential_growth_and_misleading_graphs\" >2. Exponential growth and misleading graphs<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics\/#3_Not_all_infections_are_cases\" >3. Not all infections are cases<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics\/#4_We_cant_compare_deaths_with_cases_from_the_same_date\" >4. We can\u2019t compare deaths with cases from the same date<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics\/#5_Yes_the_data_are_messy_incomplete_and_may_change\" >5. Yes, the data are messy, incomplete and may change<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#5 things self-proclaimed COVID-19 \u2018experts\u2019 get wrong about statistics<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/watch-movies-tv-seriess\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Watch Movies &amp; TV Series\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">watch Movies<\/a> or TV series visit the <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/dizi.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dizi.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div>\n                            If we don\u2019t analyze statistics for a living, it\u2019s easy to be taken in by misinformation about COVID-19 statistics on <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">social media<\/a>, especially if we don\u2019t have the right context.<\/p>\n<p>For instance, we may cherry pick statistics supporting our viewpoint and ignore statistics showing we are wrong. We also still need to correctly interpret these statistics.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s easy for us to share this misinformation. Many of these statistics are also interrelated, so misunderstandings can quickly multiply.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how we can avoid five common errors, and impress friends and family by getting the statistics right.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Its_the_infection_rate_thats_scary_not_the_death_rate\"><\/span>1. It\u2019s the infection rate that\u2019s scary, not the death rate<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EthicalSkeptic\/status\/1263660512102973441\">Social media posts<\/a> comparing COVID-19 to other causes of death, such as <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/deon.coetzee.77770\/posts\/10158515376871941\">the flu<\/a>, imply COVID-19 <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/fee.org\/articles\/npr-mounting-evidence-suggests-covid-not-as-deadly-as-thought-did-the-experts-fail-again\/\">isn\u2019t really that deadly<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But these posts miss COVID-19\u2019s infectiousness. For that, we need to look at the infection fatality rate (IFR) \u2014 the number of COVID-19 deaths divided by all those infected (a number we can only estimate at this stage, see also point 3 below).<\/p>\n<p>While the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus-the-true-fatality-rate-is-tricky-to-find-but-researchers-are-getting-closer-141426\">jury is still out<\/a>, COVID-19 has a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.05.03.20089854v4\">higher IFR<\/a> than the flu. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharontay.huff\/posts\/3037891612946957\">Posts implying<\/a> a low IFR for COVID-19 most certainly underestimate it. They also miss two other points.<\/p>\n<p>First, if we compare the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2020-08-06\/revisiting-how-covid-19-ranks-with-seasonal-flu-and-1918-pandemic\">typical flu IFR<\/a> of <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/situation-reports\/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_4\">0.1%<\/a> with the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.05.13.20101253v2.full.pdf\">most optimistic COVID-19 estimate<\/a> of 0.25%, then COVID-19 remains more than twice as deadly as the flu.<\/p>\n<p>Second, and more importantly, we need to look at the basic reproduction number (R\u2080) for each virus. This is the number of extra people one infected person is estimated to infect.<\/p>\n<p>Flu\u2019s R\u2080 <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/1471-2334-14-480\">is about 1.3<\/a>. Although COVID-19 estimates vary, its R\u2080 sits around a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jtm\/article\/27\/2\/taaa021\/5735319\">median of 2.8<\/a>. Because of the way infections grow exponentially (see below), the jump from 1.3 to 2.8 means COVID-19 is vastly more infectious than flu.<\/p>\n<p>When you combine all these statistics, you can see the motivation behind our public health measures to \u201climit the spread.\u201d It\u2019s not only that COVID-19 is so deadly, but it\u2019s also deadly <em>and<\/em> highly infectious.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Exponential_growth_and_misleading_graphs\"><\/span>2. Exponential growth and misleading graphs<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A simple graph might plot the number of new COVID cases over time. But as new cases might be reported erratically, statisticians are more interested in the rate of growth of total cases over time. The steeper the upwards slope on the graph, the more we should be worried.<\/p>\n<p>For COVID-19, statisticians look to track <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/startswithabang\/2020\/03\/17\/why-exponential-growth-is-so-scary-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus\/#65115f274e9b\">exponential growth<\/a> in cases. Put simply, unrestrained COVID cases can lead to a continuously growing number of more cases. This gives us a graph that tracks slowly at the start, but then sharply curves upwards with time. This is the curve we want to flatten, as shown below.<\/p>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.theconversation.com\/static_files\/files\/890\/Flatten_the_curve1.gif?1583941324\" width=\"736\" height=\"463\"\/><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">\u201cFlattening the curve\u201d is another way of saying \u201cslowing the spread.\u201d The epidemic is lengthened, but we reduce the number of severe cases, causing less burden on public health systems. The Conversation\/CC BY ND<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>However, social media posts routinely compare COVID-19 figures with those of other causes of death that show:<\/p>\n<p>Even when researchers talk of exponential growth, they can still mislead.<\/p>\n<p>An Israeli professor\u2019s <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/the-end-of-exponential-growth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus\/\">widely-shared<\/a> analysis claimed COVID-19\u2019s exponential growth \u201cfades after eight weeks.\u201d Well, he was clearly wrong. But why?<\/p>\n<p>His model assumed COVID-19 cases grow exponentially over a number of days, instead of over a succession of transmissions, each of which may take several days. This led him to plot only the erratic growth of the outbreak\u2019s early phase.<\/p>\n<p>Better visualizations truncate those erratic first cases, for instance by starting from the 100th case. Or they use estimates of the number of days it takes for the number of cases <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9\/fulltext\">to double<\/a> (about six to seven days).<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Not_all_infections_are_cases\"><\/span>3. Not all infections are cases<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Then there\u2019s the confusion about COVID-19 infections versus cases. In epidemiological terms, a \u201ccase\u201d is a person who is diagnosed with COVID-19, mostly by a positive test result.<\/p>\n<p>But there are many more infections than cases. Some infections don\u2019t show symptoms, some symptoms are so minor people think it\u2019s just a cold, testing is not always available to everyone who needs it, and testing <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/369\/bmj.m1808\">does not pick up all infections<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Infections \u201ccause\u201d cases, testing discovers cases. US President Donald Trump was close to the truth <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/1293163704188645385\">when he said<\/a> the number of cases in the US was high because of the high rate of testing. But he <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realistgeo\/status\/1295701536979525633\">and others<\/a> still got it totally wrong.<\/p>\n<p>More testing does not <em>result<\/em> in more cases, it allows for a <em>more accurate estimate<\/em> of the true number of cases.<\/p>\n<p>The best strategy, epidemiologically, is not to test less, but to test as widely as possible, minimizing the discrepancy between cases and overall infections.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_We_cant_compare_deaths_with_cases_from_the_same_date\"><\/span>4. We can\u2019t compare deaths with cases from the same date<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/wwwnc.cdc.gov\/eid\/article\/26\/7\/20-0282_article\">Estimates vary<\/a>, but the time between infection and death could be as much as <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.com\/science\/2020\/07\/coronavirus-deadlier-than-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd\/\">a month<\/a>. And the variation in <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2020\/04\/04\/health\/recovery-coronavirus-tracking-data-explainer\/index.html\">time to recovery<\/a> is even greater. Some people get really ill and take a long time to recover, some show no symptoms.<\/p>\n<p>So deaths recorded on a given date reflect deaths from cases recorded several weeks prior, when the case count may have been <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9\/fulltext\">less than half<\/a> the number of current cases.<\/p>\n<p>The rapid case-doubling time and protracted recovery time also create a large discrepancy between counts of <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Nutty_Lulu\/status\/1239817225860775937\">active and recovered cases<\/a>. We\u2019ll only know the true numbers in retrospect.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"5_Yes_the_data_are_messy_incomplete_and_may_change\"><\/span>5. Yes, the data are messy, incomplete and may change<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Some social media users <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CAdamMartin\/status\/1293642172324077570\">get angry<\/a> when the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/health-53722711\">statistics are adjusted<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/archive.is\/WX4RO\">fuelling<\/a> <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/photo.php?fbid=10156807927231394&amp;set=a.85311241393&amp;type=3&amp;theater\">conspiracy theories<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But few realize how <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/health-news\/articles\/2020-04-02\/why-are-us-coronavirus-recovery-numbers-so-low\">mammoth, chaotic<\/a>, and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.com\/science\/2020\/07\/coronavirus-deadlier-than-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd\/\">complex<\/a> the task is of tracking statistics on a disease like this.<\/p>\n<p>Countries and even states may count cases and deaths differently. It also takes time to gather the data, meaning retrospective adjustments are made.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll only know the true figures for this pandemic in retrospect. Equally so, early models were not necessarily wrong because the modelers were deceitful, but because they had insufficient data to work from.<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to the world of data management, data cleansing, and data modeling, which many armchair statisticians don\u2019t always <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>reciate. Until now.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article is republished from <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> by <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jacques-raubenheimer-1144463\">Jacques Raubenheimer<\/a>, Senior Research Fellow, Biostatistics, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-sydney-841\">University of Sydney<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/now-everyones-a-statistician-heres-what-armchair-covid-experts-are-getting-wrong-144494\">original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-article-read-next\">\n    <b>Read next:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>        Get the most out of your Android and iPhone with these 10 accessories, now on sale    <\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>if you want to watch Movies or Tv Shows go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/dizi.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dizi.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a> <\/span> for forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more like this article, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/technology\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Technology category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/syndication\/2020\/09\/19\/5-things-self-proclaimed-covid-19-experts-get-wrong-about-statistics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#5 things self-proclaimed COVID-19 \u2018experts\u2019 get wrong about statistics&#8221; If you want to watch Movies or TV series visit the Dizi.BuradaBiliyorum.Com If we don\u2019t analyze statistics for a living, it\u2019s easy to be taken in by misinformation about COVID-19 statistics on social media, especially if we don\u2019t have the right context. For instance, we may&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":71115,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/tnw?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2020\/09\/5-1.jpg&signature=ad53c6dc1a2a9dd33b1dde4b6cf90d43","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[1356,71615,71612,71613,67810,71614],"class_list":["post-71114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-covid-19","tag-infection","tag-insights","tag-misinformation","tag-statistics","tag-symptom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71114\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71115"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}