{"id":751261,"date":"2026-11-04T02:05:41","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T23:05:41","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-11-04T02:05:41","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T23:05:41","slug":"pollster-predicts-which-california-election-day-races-will-be-called-early","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/pollster-predicts-which-california-election-day-races-will-be-called-early\/","title":{"rendered":"Pollster predicts which California Election Day races will be called early"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6af553521e904\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6af553521e904\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-1'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/pollster-predicts-which-california-election-day-races-will-be-called-early\/#%E2%80%9CPollster_predicts_which_California_Election_Day_races_will_be_called_early%E2%80%9D\" >&#8220;Pollster predicts which California Election Day races will be called early&#8221;<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-2' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/pollster-predicts-which-california-election-day-races-will-be-called-early\/#Download_The_California_Post_App_follow_us_on_social_and_subscribe_to_our_newsletters\" >Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h1><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CPollster_predicts_which_California_Election_Day_races_will_be_called_early%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>&#8220;Pollster predicts which California Election Day races will be called early&#8221;<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h1>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F2%2F2026%2F11%2Fcomp-43.jpg?quality%3D90%26strip%3Dall\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Californians eager to know the state\u2019s next governor will have their answer almost im<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a>tely Tuesday night \u2014 but voters waiting to see who wins the Los Angeles mayor\u2019s race, San Francisco\u2019s congressional race and the billionaire tax fight may be waiting for days, according to a top Democratic pollster.<\/p>\n<p>Paul Mitchell, the mapmaker for California\u2019s Proposition 50 gerrymandering effort last year to combat President Trump and Republicans in other states, told The California Post that Democrat Xavier Becerra will be declared the winner over republican Steve Hilton in the governor\u2019s race in nanoseconds.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra votes during the U.S. midterm elections in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. <span class=\"credit\">REUTERS<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton, right, speaks during a campaign event on Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Compton, Calif. <span class=\"credit\">AP Photo\/William Liang<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m joking, but it\u2019s going to be instant,\u201d said Mitchell, vice president of <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/politicaldata.com\/california-voter-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Political Data Inc<\/a>.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module aligncenter wp-block-nypost-editor-primary-tag\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Meanwhile, Mitchell said that several House races \u2014 as well as the Los Angeles mayor\u2019s race and the proposed billionaire tax \u2014 could take longer to sort out as later returns test whether early leads can hold.<\/p>\n<p>Mitchell said polling in the governor\u2019s race closely tracked last year\u2019s vote on Prop. 50, which was projected to pass shortly after polls closed. He expects the governor\u2019s race to break along similar partisan lines.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the toughest calls, however, could come where both candidates are Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>The San Francisco congressional contest between state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan for Rep. Nancy Pelosi\u2019s seat could go unresolved until Friday, Mitchell said. So could the Los Angeles congressional race between Rep. Jimmy Gomez and Angela Gonzales-Torres.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi smiles during a rally with members of the Democratic Party in San Francisco, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. <span class=\"credit\">AP Photo\/Heather Diehl<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>California State Sen. Scott Wiener speaks during the Bloomberg Tech conference in San Francisco, Thursday, June 4, 2026. <span class=\"credit\">Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Mitchell estimated Gomez might need a four-point lead Tuesday night to hold on. In Sacramento, he put that cushion at six points for Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui against far-left City Councilmember Mai Vang.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s going to shift over time and that\u2019s going to be super close,\u201d Mitchell said of the Sacramento race.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Download_The_California_Post_App_follow_us_on_social_and_subscribe_to_our_newsletters\"><\/span><strong>Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters <\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p><strong>California Post <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a><\/strong>: <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TheCaliforniaPost\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Facebook<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/californiapost\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Instagram<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@CaliforniaPost\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TikTok<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/californiapost\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">X<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@thecaliforniapost\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.whatsapp.com\/channel\/0029Vb6a2IV1NCrL6q2AWq0E\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WhatsApp<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/californiapost\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">LinkedIn<\/a><br \/><strong>California Post Sports<\/strong> <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/capostsports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Facebook<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/capostsports\/?hl=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Instagram<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@capostsports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TikTok<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CaliforniaPostSports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/capostsports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">X<\/a><br \/><strong>California Post  <\/strong><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/californiapost\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Opinion<\/a> <br \/><strong>California Post Newsletters<\/strong>: Sign up here!<br \/><strong>California Post <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">App<\/a><\/strong>: <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/us\/app\/california-post\/id6751343487\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download here!<\/a><br \/><strong>Home delivery<\/strong>: <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/subscribe.californiapost.com\/defaultCAP\">Sign up here!<\/a><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/us\/app\/california-post\/id6751343487\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><br \/><\/a><strong>Page Six Hollywood<\/strong>: <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/pagesix.com\/hollywood-signup\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sign up here!<\/a><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<\/div>\n<p>In the Central Valley, Mitchell said a gap in reporting from Kings County could leave too many ballots outstanding to call the race between Republican Rep. David Valadao and progressive Democrat Randy Villegas.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Randy Villegas, center, speaks with Sen. Alex Padilla, right, and Sen. Adam Schiff during a canvass launch on Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Bakersfield, Calif. <span class=\"credit\">Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass knows what it\u2019s like to trail on election night and win after overtaking Rick Caruso as ballots were counted for more than a week in 2022. But this time, Mitchell said, the late count could help her lefty challenger City Councilmember Nithya Raman.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cKaren Bass needs to be up by eight points or something like that,\u201d Mitchell said, estimating the early cushion she could need to fend off younger voters casting late ballots in favor of Raman.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass rallies supporters on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Los Angeles. <span class=\"credit\">AP Photo\/Ethan Swope<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman smiles after casting her ballot at Silverlake Community Church in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. <span class=\"credit\">REUTERS<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Mitchell expects later returns to widen the deficit for Prop. 39, the Republican-led voter ID measure. But he sees a closer fight over Prop. 40, the proposed billionaire tax advanced by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW) and its controversial president Dave Regan. Google co-founder Sergey Brin poured more than $100 million of his own fortune into the fight to defeat the wealth tax.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Dave Regan, SEIU-UHW president, speaks during a \u201cYes on 40 for Ballots Over Billionaires\u201d rally in San Francisco, California, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026. <span class=\"credit\">Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Sergey Brin arrives for the Met Gala celebrating \u201cCostume Art\u201d at The Metropolitan Museum of Art on Monday, May 4, 2026, in New York. <span class=\"credit\">Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Mitchell figures opponents of the billionaire tax could need a 53% to 47% lead Tuesday night because he expects later returns to favor the measure.<\/p>\n<p>Later returns will likely lean Democratic statewide, Mitchell said, but the pattern can flip in conservative regions like Placer and Riverside counties, where there are more \u201cMAGA\u201d supporters who distrust voting by mail and tend to cast ballots late.<\/p>\n<p>In Los Angeles and Alameda counties, Mitchell said, younger voters could give progressive candidates and causes a lift as more ballots are counted.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><script async src=\"\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.google.com\/publications\/CAAqBwgKMLG0nwswvr63Aw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Google News<\/a><\/span>\u00a0too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more News articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" >News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/11\/03\/us-news\/pollster-predicts-which-california-election-day-races-will-be-called-early\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Pollster predicts which California Election Day races will be called early&#8221; Californians eager to know the state\u2019s next governor will have their answer almost immediately Tuesday night \u2014 but voters waiting to see who wins the Los Angeles mayor\u2019s race, San Francisco\u2019s congressional race and the billionaire tax fight may be waiting for days, according&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-751261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/751261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=751261"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/751261\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=751261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=751261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=751261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}