{"id":86409,"date":"2020-10-10T17:48:41","date_gmt":"2020-10-10T14:48:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/how-trumps-enthusiasm-factor-could-lead-to-another-surprise-win\/"},"modified":"2020-10-10T17:48:41","modified_gmt":"2020-10-10T14:48:41","slug":"how-trumps-enthusiasm-factor-could-lead-to-another-surprise-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/how-trumps-enthusiasm-factor-could-lead-to-another-surprise-win\/","title":{"rendered":"#How Trump’s ‘enthusiasm factor’ could lead to another surprise win"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#How Trump’s ‘enthusiasm factor’ could lead to another surprise win<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n \u201cIt was mind-boggling,\u201d said Charles Ryan. \u201cI\u2019m out on my boat, there\u2019s thousands of people, and every one of them has this big smile. I\u2019ve never seen such happ<\/a>iness. It was infectious.\u201d<\/p>\n

Four flags fluttered from the stern of Ryan\u2019s runabout on Sept. 5 as he motored through New Jersey\u2019s Barnegat Bay: the Stars and Strip<\/a>es, a \u201cBlue Lives Matter\u201d banner, and a pair of streamers honoring President Donald J. Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of them says \u2018Trump: No More Bulls\u2013t,’\u201d said Ryan, of New Hope, Pa. \u201cI\u2019m not into flying anything too vulgar.\u201d<\/p>\n

As Ryan\u2019s boat joined at least 2,000 other watercraft for the Trump Law and Order Boat Parade, the same scene was playing out in dozens of harbors, rivers and lakes from the Jersey Shore to San Diego that Labor Day weekend.<\/p>\n

One week later, on Sept. 12, more than 16,000 cars, pickups, motorcycles and semis festooned with banners and bunting jammed Cincinnati\u2019s I-275 beltway in a convoy that looped through three states, one of several Trump car caravans being organized on Facebook<\/a>. Meanwhile, an unknown fan in Norwell, Mass., stenciled \u201cTrump 2020\u201d in bright yellow letters across the travel lanes of busy Route 3 (Highway crews quickly painted over the message.)<\/p>\n

Public displays of exuberant affection for Trump have been building for months now, but they reached a fervent new pitch when the president came down with COVID-19.<\/p>\n

As hundreds of well-wishers gathered outside Trump\u2019s hospital suite at Walter Reed Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., last weekend, New Yorkers, too, took to the streets.<\/p>\n

More than 700 decorated vehicles converged on Albany<\/span> Oct. 3 in a parade to honor the ailing president. In Staten Island, 2,500 Trump fans filmed a raucous get-well message that racked up 6 million views<\/span><\/a> on Twitter. On Fifth Avenue, Trump supporters drove a contingent of flag-flying trucks to stage an impromptu rally<\/span> outside Trump Tower.<\/p>\n

\"A
A platoon of Trump fans float in New Jersey\u2019s Barnegat Bay on Sept. 15.<\/span>J.C.Rice<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cIt was a direct message from \u2018we the people\u2019 to President Trump,\u201d said Yvonne Gasperino of Harrison, NY, who helped organize the Albany caravan. \u201cThe consensus from all was that COVID-19 didn\u2019t stand a chance against him.\u201d<\/p>\n

Enthusiasm for Trump among his voters \u201cis historically high,\u201d said Richard Baris, the director of Big Data Poll. \u201cWe saw that very early in the cycle, in his primary vote totals,\u201d when the president drew unusually large voter turnout<\/span> in uncontested races.<\/p>\n

\u201cMeanwhile, Biden\u2019s enthusiasm level is historically low \u2014 so low that the Democrats run the risk of replaying 2016,\u201d Baris said.<\/p>\n

Just 46 percent of Biden voters in a recent Pew poll<\/span><\/a> said that they strongly support him, compared to 66 percent of Trump\u2019s base.<\/p>\n

Their bond with Trump in most cases has only grown stronger .\u2009.\u2009.<\/p>\n

\u00a0–\u00a0Author Daniel Allott on the president\u2019s supporters <\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Rank-and-file Dems are sounding the alarm.<\/p>\n

\u201cI look out over my Biden sign in my front yard and I see a sea of Trump flags and yard signs,\u201d Pennsylvania voter Susan Connors told Biden worriedly at a CNN-sponsored town hall Sept. 17.<\/p>\n

Experienced political hands have a saying: \u201cYard signs don\u2019t vote.\u201d And research appears to bear that out \u2014 a 2016 study<\/span><\/a> found that political signage increases vote share by a mere 1.7 percentage points, on average.<\/p>\n

Biden holds a 10-point lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average<\/span><\/a>, a commanding position with Election Day less than four weeks away. But the exuberant signs and displays of Trump passion may actually point to a yawning enthusiasm gap that could make a big difference on Election Day \u2014 just as they did in 2016.<\/p>\n

Four years ago, a Washington Post\/ABC News<\/a> poll<\/span><\/a> found a 13-point enthusiasm gap in Trump\u2019s favor, a result echoed by other surveys, The Hill reported.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany people .\u2009.\u2009. said that the sheer volume of Trump signs they saw in 2016 \u2014 and the scarcity of Hillary Clinton signs \u2014 was their first clue that the polling was wrong and that Trump would have more success than the pundits had predicted,\u201d Daniel Allott writes in \u201cOn the Road in Trump\u2019s America: A Journey into the Heart of a Divided Nation<\/a>\u201d (Republic Books), out Oct. 20.<\/p>\n

Allott\u2019s book is the result of three years\u2019 worth of interviews with swing voters in counties that were difference-makers in the 2016 election.<\/p>\n

\u201cTheir bond with Trump in most cases has only grown stronger, because of the bashing he has taken from the media elite, cultural elite, Hollywood, pro sports \u2014 everyone these people feel belittled by,\u201d Allott told The Post. \u201cThe very fact he is getting attacked makes them his allies.\u201d<\/p>\n

That loyalty is the engine driving Trump supporters\u2019 election-season outpourings, agreed flotilla boater Ryan.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis guy is constantly getting dragged by a press that is so obviously leaning the other way,\u201d Ryan said. \u201cIf everything was reported fairly, I don\u2019t think you\u2019d see this level of overt support. Because we wouldn\u2019t feel like we had to.\u201d<\/p>\n

Voters tend to turn out more reliably, and in greater numbers, when they are enthusiastic about casting a ballot for their candidate \u2014 not when their prime motivation is an opponent\u2019s defeat, Baris said.<\/p>\n

In three out of the last five presidential races, the winner carried a strong enthusiasm advantage throughout the campaign. Trump in 2016 was one of those victors.<\/p>\n

\"Trump
In Port Clinton, Ohio, a homeowner used 150 gallons of paint to transform an entire yard into a giant Trump pennant.<\/span>Twitter<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hillary Clinton\u2019s backers pooh-poohed the 13-point enthusiasm edge Trump held over her in September 2016, mistakenly believing that her data-driven, big-spending campaign would win out.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s base has maintained similarly superior enthusiasm over Biden\u2019s throughout the 2020 election cycle, according to several national polls released this month. The IBD\/TIPP poll<\/span><\/a> of Oct. 2 found an 8-point differential between the 74 percent of \u201cstrong\u201d Trump voters and the 66 percent of Biden voters saying the same. And in a YouGov poll<\/span><\/a> released last month, 75 percent of Trump voters said their vote is mostly motivated by support for him, as opposed to 43 percent of Biden voters.<\/p>\n

Baris\u2019 Sept. 18 poll<\/span><\/a> of the Rust Belt states \u2014 Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota \u2014 found a 16-point intensity differential: 61 percent of Trump\u2019s voters there are extremely enthusiastic about voting for him, compared to 45 percent of Biden\u2019s supporters.<\/p>\n

In many parts of those states, evidence of fervor for 45 is ubiquitous, with Trump vehicle caravans set to hit local highways every weekend in October. In Latrobe, Pa., local volunteers maintain a \u201cTrump House\u201d that\u2019s done up like Old Glory, with a 14-foot steel Trump cutout on the lawn and a likeness of Joe Biden poking his head out of the basement storm door. In Port Clinton, Ohio, a homeowner used 150 gallons of paint to transform his entire yard into a giant Trump pennant.<\/p>\n

\"Norwell
Norwell Mass. Highway, Route 44<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Even tiny Fredericksburg, Ohio, got into the act with a Sept. 19 Amish for Trump parade featuring cattle, horses and traditional buggies, one sporting a most untraditional banner reading \u201cTrump 2020: Make Liberals Cry Again.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMy contacts in these swing counties say the Trump signs are out in full force,\u201d Allott said. \u201cHoward County, Iowa, the only county in America that voted for Barack Obama by more than 20 points in 2012 and Trump by more than 20 points in 2016, is covered with Trump signs, not a single Biden sign.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Biden campaign chalks the lack of signage up to their reliance on a digital field campaign in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, which has kept them from opening the usual local campaign offices in crucial electoral battlegrounds. \u201cIn one of the most important swing states in the country, Biden\u2019s campaign is all but invisible to the naked eye,\u201d Time magazine reported<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Incumbency, meanwhile, also confers additional enthusiasm advantages.<\/p>\n

\u201cVoters usually come out to defend their president,\u201d Baris said. \u201cIn 2012, that saved Obama in a number of states: Black women\u2019s enthusiasm for him was so high, he held on. In typical election years, extreme enthusiasm gaps this large can prove very consequential to turnout.\u201d<\/p>\n

But for all the overt enthusiasm, a chunk of Trump\u2019s support remains undercover.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere should be even more signage, based on the enthusiasm we see in our polling,\u201d Baris said. \u201cBut a lot of people are afraid.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"President
Since Trump\u2019s COVID-19 diagnosis, some of his supporters, like Charles Ryan (above), say they are displaying their affection even more than usual.<\/span>Stefano Giovannini<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s because of the intolerance of the left,\u201d said Beth Freeman of Verona, NJ, who sailed in two Trump boat parades this summer. \u201cI would never put up a Trump sign here in Essex County. People who do support Trump are afraid to show it \u2014 afraid their house will get egged or something. It\u2019s really sad.\u201d<\/p>\n

In many parts of the country, this summer\u2019s sometimes violent street demonstrations have cast a pall over political expression, Baris said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe spoke to a store owner in central Florida who had pro-Trump signs all over it in 2016,\u201d Baris said. \u201cNot this year. Now he told us he\u2019s afraid of getting a brick through the window.\u201d<\/p>\n

The fear of street violence is another reason why flotillas and car caravans have taken off, Ryan added.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re safe out there,\u201d he said. \u201cIt sounds so sick to say that. But these extremists, these rioters, they can\u2019t get to us out there.\u201d<\/p>\n

And it only intensifies the resentment that Trump voters feel toward the elites who \u2014 as Hillary Clinton\u2019s \u201cbasket of deplorables\u201d comment revealed \u2014 hold them in disdain.<\/p>\n

\"A
In Latrobe, Pa., local volunteers maintain a \u201cTrump House\u201d that\u2019s done up like Old Glory.<\/span>Facebook<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cIn the Trump era, there\u2019s a lot of social pressure not to identify as a Trump supporter,\u201d said Glenn Harlan Reynolds, a law professor at the University of Tennessee who runs the Instapundit politics blog. \u201cWhen people brave that pressure, it can gather its own momentum\u201d \u2014 touching off what\u2019s known as a preference cascade.<\/p>\n

\u201cA preference cascade happens when you have a lot of people concealing their true beliefs because of social or government pressure,\u201d explained Reynolds, who has studied the phenomenon. \u201cThey keep concealing their feelings until something triggers them to see they\u2019re not alone.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s like the old story of the emperor\u2019s new clothes,\u201d he said. \u201cYou see rapid changes in behavior, in public expression and in attitudes, because what was already there has been revealed.\u201d<\/p>\n

An overnight shift in public opinion fueled Ronald Reagan\u2019s shocking 10-point landslide in 1980<\/span><\/a>, for example, despite election-eve polls that pegged the race as too close to call.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what drove Ryan to set sail in the Trump flotilla last month.<\/p>\n

\u201cI thought it may have some influence on people who feel they are alone,\u201d he said. \u201cThey\u2019re watching on the sidelines, so afraid to say what they really think.<\/p>\n

\u201cI went out there to say, \u2018No, there are a hundred million of us out here, and you are one of us.\u2019\u2009\u201d\n <\/p><\/div>\n