{"id":86661,"date":"2020-10-11T05:01:16","date_gmt":"2020-10-11T02:01:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/trump-needs-more-than-just-poll-numbers-to-win-election-goodwin\/"},"modified":"2020-10-11T05:01:16","modified_gmt":"2020-10-11T02:01:16","slug":"trump-needs-more-than-just-poll-numbers-to-win-election-goodwin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/trump-needs-more-than-just-poll-numbers-to-win-election-goodwin\/","title":{"rendered":"#Trump needs more than just poll numbers to win election: Goodwin"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a36e9b4052c8\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a36e9b4052c8\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/trump-needs-more-than-just-poll-numbers-to-win-election-goodwin\/#A_vote_for_hypocrisy\" >A vote for hypocrisy<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/trump-needs-more-than-just-poll-numbers-to-win-election-goodwin\/#NFL_bettor_idea\" >NFL bettor idea?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#Trump needs more than just poll numbers to win election: Goodwin<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                        It\u2019s a number that would make any incumbent jump for joy: 56\u2009percent of registered voters tell Gallup they are better off than they were four years ago, while only 32 percent said they are worse off.<\/p>\n<p>President Trump hailed the finding, which is remarkable considering it came while the coronavirus is still claiming casualties and the economy remains restricted.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the 56 percent result is better than what George W. Bush and Barack Obama got in their first terms.<\/p>\n<p>In October of 2004, when Bush was seeking re-election, 47 percent of registered voters said they were better off than before he took office. In 2012, as Obama sought a second term, 45 percent said they were better off than four years earlier.<\/p>\n<p>Both won re-election, so Trump is clobbering Joe Biden, right? Oops, the president\u2019s trailing by nearly 10 points nationally and by single digits in most swing-state polls.<\/p>\n<p>Something\u2019s not right.<\/p>\n<p>First, some history on the public-satisfaction question. Forty years ago, Ronald Reagan used his closing statement in his only debate with incumbent Jimmy Carter to ask, \u201cAre you better off?\u201d to the 80 million people watching at home.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNext Tuesday, all of you will go to the polls, will stand there in the polling place and make a decision,\u201d Reagan said. \u201cI think when you make that decision, it might be well if you would ask yourself: Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we\u2019re as strong as we were four years ago?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It was a brilliant move because, while the polls were close, the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media<\/a> and Carter were working overtime to paint Reagan as a cowboy nut job who would turn back civil rights, block women\u2019s progress and cause a nuclear war. The question put the focus on Carter\u2019s dismal first term.<\/p>\n<p>A week later, Reagan won 44 states and 489 electoral votes to Carter\u2019s six states and 49 electoral votes.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_16434504\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img class=\"wp-image-16434504 size-nypost-large-desktop-uncropped lazyload\" alt=\"President Jimmy Carter and then-California Gov. Ronald Reagan during a presidential election debate in Cleveland, Ohio in 1980. \" width=\"662\" height=\"441\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/ReaganCarter.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=300 300w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/ReaganCarter.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=640 640w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/ReaganCarter.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1280 1280w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/ReaganCarter.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=662 662w, https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/ReaganCarter.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1324 1324w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 662px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\"><span>President Jimmy Carter and then-California Gov. Ronald Reagan debate in Cleveland in 1980.<\/span><span class=\"credit\">via REUTERS<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Ever since, the \u201cbetter off\u201d question has been a yardstick for measuring an incumbent\u2019s likely fate. Foolishly, Obama asked the question himself before the 2014 midterms, not long after a poll found that 59 percent of respondents effectively said they were worse off.<\/p>\n<p>They showed they meant it on Election Day, with the GOP adding to its House majority and picking up a whopping nine Senate seats to take control.<\/p>\n<p>Given that pattern, it\u2019s significant that Trump is not getting the political benefit of the broad satisfaction Gallup found. My conclusion is that Biden and the media have succeeded in making the campaign a referendum on Trump, especially his personality and handling of the coronavirus, while the president and his team have failed to make the election a choice between his policies and Biden\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>The difference is enormous. A referendum on Trump becomes an up-or-down vote on him, which puts a heavy focus on his personal quirks and conduct more than his policies. Many polls, including some conducted for Republicans, found significant numbers of potential swing voters don\u2019t like the president\u2019s tweetstorms and his endless brawling, much of which they believe has nothing to do with their welfare.<\/p>\n<p>That was true of surveys conducted for some GOP Senate incumbents in swing states, which showed the president less popular than the incumbents in those states.<\/p>\n<p>That, in a nutshell, explains how people can say they are better off under Trump yet still say they are supporting Biden.<\/p>\n<p>One theory of the race is that it\u2019s a base election, meaning each side doesn\u2019t really have to court new voters as much as energize core supporters.<\/p>\n<p>That could be correct, but it\u2019s hard to see how Trump can energize his base more\u00a0than he already has. If so, victory will come only if he can do what Reagan did and get the spotlight off himself and shine it on what a Dem triumph would mean to voters\u2019 lives and livelihoods.<\/p>\n<p>Debates offer the best opportunity for doing that, but Trump\u2019s repeated interruptions in the first one stole the show, to his detriment, and the second debate has been canceled. Thus, the president must find another way to get voters to pay attention to his opponents\u2019 agenda. Simply calling it \u201cradical\u201d and \u201csocialist\u201d isn\u2019t working.<\/p>\n<p>A friend suggested Trump stage a mock debate, where he talks to an empty chair, as Clint Eastwood did at the 2012 GOP convention, with the chair representing Barack Obama. That\u2019s probably a stunt too far, but the point is that Trump must change the dynamics.<\/p>\n<p>He doesn\u2019t lack for ammunition. The Dems\u2019 ducking of key questions reached a new low Friday when Biden, asked by a Las Vegas reporter if voters \u201cdeserve to know\u201d if he favors packing the Supreme Court, answered, \u201cNo, they don\u2019t deserve to,\u201d then tried to switch the focus back to Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, he and Harris have given conflicting or unclear answers about whether they support a ban on fracking and the Green New Deal and their plan to hike taxes on high earners and corporations. The lack of clarity is often intentional, proving they don\u2019t want voters to know what a Biden-Harris administration would do.<\/p>\n<p>Those gaps should make it possible for the president to draw compelling contrasts between his policies, which produced that broad satisfaction Gallup found, and the foggy, far-left nostrums Biden and Harris are selling, many of which are widely unpopular.<\/p>\n<p>If he succeeds, the president will be giving himself the best possible chance to win. Of course, a key ingredient is that he not create competing story lines that overshadow the policy contrast he is trying to promote.<\/p>\n<p>That might be his biggest challenge of all.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_vote_for_hypocrisy\"><\/span>A vote for hypocrisy<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>There they go again.<\/p>\n<p>Andrea Peyser\u2019s report in Saturday\u2019s Post about getting a second ballot from the city Board of Elections, with instructions to use it even if she already voted and a promise that only the second ballot would be counted, is a classic example of the left doing exactly what it condemns in Trump.<\/p>\n<p>The president, warning against election chaos, urged North Carolina voters last month to test the system by using an absentee ballot, then trying to vote again at a polling place. If the absentee ballot had been counted, the second attempt should be blocked, he said.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats erupted, charging he was urging people to commit a crime by voting twice. Well, then where\u2019s the outrage over what the city is doing?<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"NFL_bettor_idea\"><\/span>NFL bettor idea?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Headline:<\/p>\n<p>NFL REFS NOW ALLOWED TO FLAG TEAMS FOR MASK VIOLATIONS<\/p>\n<p>Real football fans will hate the idea, but gamblers have a new reason to watch. Maybe that\u2019s the point.\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/10\/10\/trump-needs-more-than-just-poll-numbers-to-win-election-goodwin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#Trump needs more than just poll numbers to win election: Goodwin&#8221; It\u2019s a number that would make any incumbent jump for joy: 56\u2009percent of registered voters tell Gallup they are better off than they were four years ago, while only 32 percent said they are worse off. President Trump hailed the finding, which is remarkable&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":86662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/BidenTrump.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1200","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[75227,70327,72997,4941,71429,72402,991,54282,869,70468,48554,70473],"class_list":["post-86661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-10-10-20","tag-2020-presidential-election","tag-board-of-elections","tag-donald-trump","tag-fracking","tag-green-new-deal","tag-joe-biden","tag-kamala-harris","tag-nfl","tag-polls","tag-ronald-reagan","tag-voting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86661"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86661\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}