{"id":91494,"date":"2020-10-17T16:21:52","date_gmt":"2020-10-17T13:21:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/doctors-and-scientists-take-aim-at-herd-immunity-calling-it-nonsense-and-a-nebulous-idea\/"},"modified":"2020-10-17T16:21:52","modified_gmt":"2020-10-17T13:21:52","slug":"doctors-and-scientists-take-aim-at-herd-immunity-calling-it-nonsense-and-a-nebulous-idea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/doctors-and-scientists-take-aim-at-herd-immunity-calling-it-nonsense-and-a-nebulous-idea\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  Doctors and scientists take aim at herd immunity, calling it \u2018nonsense\u2019 and a \u2018nebulous\u2019 idea"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a373c9f19ef8\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a373c9f19ef8\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/doctors-and-scientists-take-aim-at-herd-immunity-calling-it-nonsense-and-a-nebulous-idea\/#Experts_say_the_case_for_herd_immunity_is_more_about_a_longing_for_economic_normalcy_than_a_realistic_plan_for_the_future\" >Experts say the case for herd immunity is more about a longing for economic normalcy than a realistic plan for the future<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/doctors-and-scientists-take-aim-at-herd-immunity-calling-it-nonsense-and-a-nebulous-idea\/#Jaimy_Lee\" >Jaimy Lee<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  Doctors and scientists take aim at herd immunity, calling it \u2018nonsense\u2019 and a \u2018nebulous\u2019 idea<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Experts_say_the_case_for_herd_immunity_is_more_about_a_longing_for_economic_normalcy_than_a_realistic_plan_for_the_future\"><\/span>\n  Experts say the case for herd immunity is more about a longing for economic normalcy than a realistic plan for the future<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"02EEBB38-0F24-11EB-8B3D-37F7E7C0AC22\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>       The Trump administration this week promoted a theory that calls for people at low risk of contracting COVID-19 to return to schools, sports, and the workplace, though officials have denied they are putting their support behind the increasingly controversial concept of herd immunity. <\/p>\n<p> The document cited Monday by White House officials during a call with reporters is called the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/gbdeclaration.org\/\" class=\"icon none\">Great Barrington Declaration<\/a>, which states older people and the medically vulnerable should continue to stay home, and those at \u201cminimal risk of death [should] live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection.\u201d The White House denies it has considered a herd-immunity strategy. <\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Good Morning America this week that the proposal is \u201cnonsense,\u201d while the Infectious Diseases Society of America said that \u201cpromoting the concept of \u2018herd immunity\u2019 as framed in a recently circulated document as an answer to the COVID-19 pandemic is in<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ropriate, irresponsible and ill-informed.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><strong>See also:<\/strong>There are seven coronavirus vaccine candidates being tested in the U.S. \u2014 here\u2019s where they stand<\/p>\n<p>Herd immunity occurs when <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jhsph.edu\/covid-19\/articles\/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html\" class=\"icon none\">50% to 90% of a population<\/a> becomes immune to a virus. The idea is that once people have been infected, they would then develop protective antibodies as part of their recoveries. The virus would then, in theory, lose mobility, with fewer and fewer hosts available. <\/p>\n<p>But with a highly contagious and sometimes fatal virus like SARS-CoV-2, this also means the loss of potentially hundreds of thousands of lives. \u201cWithout a vaccine, many people would have to die from COVID-19 before population immunity is achieved,\u201d two professors wrote in an <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)31924-3\/fulltext\" class=\"icon none\">editorial<\/a> in The Lancet last month. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a lot of enthusiasm and belief that this can be somehow quickly and easily achieved with little harm,\u201d said Glen Nowak, director of Grady College\u2019s Center for Health and Risk Communication. \u201cThat was sort of the belief with hydroxychloroquine, and that turned out not to be true.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Experts told MarketWatch that the case for herd immunity, either by natural infection or vaccination and some combination of both, is more about a longing for economic normalcy than a realistic plan for the future. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a mirage to think that simply because we\u2019re going to say we\u2019re going to have herd immunity without the vaccine that\u2019s going to be our policy and that\u2019s somehow going to boost our economy,\u201d said Robert Litan, an economist and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. \u201dAs long as you have to wear a mask and <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">social<\/a> distance, Main Street is dead.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Read:<\/strong>The CDC says big Thanksgiving gatherings are a high-risk activity. Here\u2019s how to safely visit family this holiday season<\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>Sweden, where there has been no national lockdown, is often held up as an example of a state-led herd immunity strategy. However, the country has reported a higher per capita death rate than any of its Scandinavian neighbors, all of which fell 8.3% in the second quarter to mark the steepest contraction since the start of the time <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/watch-movies-tv-seriess\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"Watch Movies &amp; TV Series\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">series<\/a> in 1980, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scb.se\/en\/finding-statistics\/statistics-by-subject-area\/national-accounts\/national-accounts\/national-accounts-quarterly-and-annual-estimates\/pong\/statistical-news\/national-accounts-second-quarter-20202\/\" class=\"icon none\">according to Swedish government data<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor many herd immunity is just a nebulous idea that really means no more lockdown,\u201d said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. \u201cThe two concepts have become synonymous.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At the NBC Town Hall on Thursday, President Donald Trump was asked if he supports herd immunity as a strategy for the U.S. pandemic response. He did not answer the question directly but cited stringent lockdowns in Michigan and New York, saying \u201cyou can\u2019t let this continue to go on with the lockdowns.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But beyond the economic rationale for avoiding lockdowns, the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a> on herd immunity for this virus doesn\u2019t yet stack up. Reinfection may be possible, it\u2019s unclear how long antibodies stick around, and no one can yet confirm that COVID-19 antibodies convey protection against future exposure. Plus, polls indicate waning desire among Americans to take a vaccine if one becomes available. If people are unwilling to get a vaccine, it would slow the pace of immunity within the population. (This is why Litan <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/opinions\/want-herd-immunity-pay-people-to-take-the-vaccine\/?preview_id=1009736\" class=\"icon none\">argues<\/a> that Americans should be paid to get vaccinated.) <\/p>\n<p>There are several documented cases of reinfection in the U.S. and abroad, including in a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/laninf\/article\/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7\/fulltext\" class=\"icon none\">25-year-old man<\/a> in Reno, Nev., who was infected with two separate strains of the virus within a two-month period. Other <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc2025179?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article\" class=\"icon none\">research<\/a> published in September in the New England Journal of Medicine indicates that antibodies decay in some people who have had mild cases of COVID-19 within three months. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf antibodies are related to protection from infection, and they\u2019re dropping rapidly, then it\u2019s not surprising if people become susceptible to reinfection,\u201d said Dr. Otto Yang, a co-author of the antibody study and professor of infectious diseases at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA. <\/p>\n<p>This isn\u2019t surprising to Yang, who said there are four coronaviruses that have been in circulation for decades that cause the common cold. Once someone is infected, immunity may last one to three years, but for these types of coronaviruses herd immunity has never been established. \u201cIf herd immunity developed, they would stop circulating because they would have basically burned all their fuel and there\u2019d be no new people to reinfect,\u201d he said. \u201cBut they continue to circulate.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>See also:<\/strong>People of color shouldn\u2019t be treated equally in COVID-19 vaccine trials, ER doctor says: They should be over-represented<\/p>\n<p>There are a number of predictions for when the U.S. may achieve herd immunity \u2014 if it\u2019s possible to do so.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/featured-insights\/coronavirus-leading-through-the-crisis\/charting-the-path-to-the-next-normal\/us-most-likely-to-reach-covid-19-herd-immunity-in-second-half-of-2021?&amp;_lrsc=35a93e18-84f4-48e5-bad7-f8019b83e398&amp;cid=other-soc-lke\" class=\"icon none\">McKinsey\u2019s best-case scenario<\/a> is that the U.S. will reach herd immunity sometime in the second half of 2021. According to RBC Capital Markets, herd immunity could be established in early 2023 without a vaccine. This would also mean there more than 600,000 Americans would die. Analysts there predict \u201csufficient immunity\u201d by April if one-fourth of the U.S. population gets vaccinated, though that still means that at least 190,000 people will die by then.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis virus is likely to become endemic,\u201d Nowak said, \u201cand so being able to return to pre-pandemic levels will take more than one thing. It\u2019ll take vaccines. It will take effective treatments. It will take really accurate rapid diagnostic tests. It\u2019ll probably still take vigilance when it comes to crowds and physical distancing.\u201d<\/p>\n<div data-layout=\"\n              inline\" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetCommentingPromo\n            \n            inline\n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetCommentingPromo\n            article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Jaimy Lee\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Jaimy_Lee\"><\/span>Jaimy Lee<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B02EEBB38-0F24-11EB-8B3D-37F7E7C0AC22%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Doctors and scientists take aim at herd immunity, calling it \u2018nonsense\u2019 and a \u2018nebulous\u2019 idea &#8221; Experts say the case for herd immunity is more about a longing for economic normalcy than a realistic plan for the future The Trump administration this week promoted a theory that calls for people at low risk of&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91495,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-91494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91494"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91494\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}