{"id":94540,"date":"2020-10-21T21:44:57","date_gmt":"2020-10-21T18:44:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/donald-trumps-potential-path-to-victory-338canada\/"},"modified":"2020-10-21T21:44:57","modified_gmt":"2020-10-21T18:44:57","slug":"donald-trumps-potential-path-to-victory-338canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/donald-trumps-potential-path-to-victory-338canada\/","title":{"rendered":"#Donald Trump’s potential path to victory: 338Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"

“#Donald Trump’s potential path to victory: 338Canada<\/strong>”<\/p>\n

\n Philippe J. Fournier: Some modest polling errors in a number of toss-up states and a win in Pennsylvania could push Trump over the tipping point to win\n <\/div>\n
\n With less than two weeks to go in the election campaign south of the border, national polls still overwhelmingly show Joe Biden as the favourite<\/a> in the race over President Donald Trump. Indeed, the national numbers measure that Biden is holding on to a relatively comfortable lead of 8 to 10 points on average, which has remained mostly stable\u2014give or take a point\u2014since the middle of summer.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, we know all too well that it is not the popular vote that ultimately decides the presidency, but the Electoral College. On this front, the state polls measure a somewhat closer race than the national polls, even though Biden should still be considered the favourite.<\/p>\n

Here is the current presidential map<\/a> from the 338Canada model:<\/p>\n



<\/a><\/p>\n

If this exact map were to materialize in November, Joe Biden would win 350 electoral votes to Trump\u2019s 188. However, a total of 133 electoral votes remain still in the toss up column, meaning that a few points towards Biden could turn this race into a total blowout in favour of Joe Biden (with 400+ electoral votes), and a few points towards Trump could result in a near-tie (should polls underestimate Trump\u2019s support in key states).<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a look at the most likely path to re-election for President Trump using the above map.<\/p>\n

As of this writing, the tipping point<\/b> is Pennsylvania<\/a>, where Biden holds an average lead of five points over Trump according to the 338Canada model.<\/p>\n

The tipping point is the state whose electoral votes pushes one candidate at or above the threshold of 270 electoral votes. To determine the tipping point, we rank states from most Republican to most Democratic and line up the totals.<\/p>\n



<\/a><\/p>\n

As you can see on the graph below, Pennsylvania is the first state above the dotted line on the right (blue) side.


<\/a><\/p>\n

Therefore, assuming Trump holds the toss up states of Iowa and Ohio, Trump would have to carry all of Georgia, North Carolina, the always-important Florida, Arizona and, finally, Pennsylvania to win.<\/p>\n

Here are the current 338Canada average leads in those states:<\/p>\n