{"id":96766,"date":"2020-10-24T17:00:46","date_gmt":"2020-10-24T14:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/why-contact-tracing-apps-havent-lived-up-to-expectations\/"},"modified":"2020-10-24T17:00:46","modified_gmt":"2020-10-24T14:00:46","slug":"why-contact-tracing-apps-havent-lived-up-to-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-contact-tracing-apps-havent-lived-up-to-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"#Why contact-tracing apps haven\u2019t lived up to expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2572560e1a4\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2572560e1a4\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-contact-tracing-apps-havent-lived-up-to-expectations\/#Lack_of_trust\" >Lack of trust<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/why-contact-tracing-apps-havent-lived-up-to-expectations\/#Technology_problem\" >Technology problem<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#Why contact-tracing <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>s haven\u2019t lived up to expectations<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                            During the first wave of COVID-19, researchers at Oxford University built a computer model <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.research.ox.ac.uk\/Article\/2020-04-16-digital-contact-tracing-can-slow-or-even-stop-coronavirus-transmission-and-ease-us-out-of-lockdown\">that suggested<\/a> if 56% of the UK downloaded and used a contact-tracing app (alongside other control measures) it could end the epidemic in the country.<\/p>\n<p>With the English app only available since September, it\u2019s too early to tell how the system is actually doing. But even based on other countries whose apps have been available much longer, there\u2019s still very little evidence that they can make a real difference to fighting COVID-19 \u2013 or that they can\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p>While this doesn\u2019t mean we should write off contact-tracing apps altogether, the lack of evidence is a concern given the focus and money devoted to these apps and the policy decisions made around them. This kind of \u201ctech solutionism\u201d could be a distraction from developing proven manual contact-tracing systems. Indeed, the Council of Europe has <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/rm.coe.int\/covid19-joint-statement-28-april\/16809e3fd7\">raised the question<\/a> of whether, given the lack of evidence, the promises made about these apps are \u201cworth the predictable societal and legal risks.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.research.ox.ac.uk\/Article\/2020-04-16-digital-contact-tracing-can-slow-or-even-stop-coronavirus-transmission-and-ease-us-out-of-lockdown\">Despite predictions<\/a> that between 67.5% and 85.5% of potential app users would download apps, worldwide download rates of contact-tracing apps have so far been low, running approximately at 20%. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/uk.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/varying-degrees-success-coronavirus-apps-101418937.html?_guc_consent_skip=1603121816\">In Germany<\/a>, it has been around 21%, in Italy 14%, in France just 3%. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/21e438a6-32f2-43b9-b843-61b819a427aa\">Iceland<\/a> and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/singapore\/government-aiming-for-70-participation-in-tracetogether-programme-says-vivian-on-first-day\">Singapore<\/a>, which was one of the first to launch an app, have the highest download rates to date at 40%.<\/p>\n<p><em>[Read: <span class=\"c-message_attachment__title\"><span dir=\"auto\">What audience intelligence data tells us about the 2020 US presidential election<\/span>]<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Download rates matter because you need lots of other people to have the app on their phone to increase the chance that if you come into contact with someone who has the virus the system will be able to alert you of that fact.<\/p>\n<p>In broad terms, if you have 20% of the population as active app users then there is only a 4% chance of coming into contact with another app user (<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/singapore\/more-need-to-use-contact-tracing-app-for-it-to-be-effective\">the maths is explained here<\/a>). Increase the download rate to 40% and you have a 16% chance of meeting another active app user. This also works on the assumption that users have the same app or different ones that can work together.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n<figure class=\"post-image post-mediaBleed aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" sizes=\"auto, (min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" alt=\"Smartphone displaying contact tracing app.\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" class=\" lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/364718\/original\/file-20201021-15-1q2qkid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" data-lazy=\"true\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/364718\/original\/file-20201021-15-1q2qkid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/364718\/original\/file-20201021-15-1q2qkid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/364718\/original\/file-20201021-15-1q2qkid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/364718\/original\/file-20201021-15-1q2qkid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/364718\/original\/file-20201021-15-1q2qkid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/364718\/original\/file-20201021-15-1q2qkid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\"\/><figcaption><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/syndication\/2020\/10\/24\/why-contact-tracing-apps-havent-lived-up-to-expectations\/#\" data-url=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fthenextweb.com%2Fsyndication%2F2020%2F10%2F24%2Fwhy-contact-tracing-apps-havent-lived-up-to-expectations%2F&amp;via=thenextweb&amp;related=thenextweb&amp;text=Check out this picture on: The app can\u2019t trace your contacts if no one else downloads it. Esther Barry\/Shutterstock\" data-title=\"Share The app can\u2019t trace your contacts if no one else downloads it. Esther Barry\/Shutterstock on Twitter\" data-width=\"685\" data-height=\"500\" class=\"post-image-share popitup\" title=\"Share The app can\u2019t trace your contacts if no one else downloads it. Esther Barry\/Shutterstock on Twitter\"><i class=\"icon icon--inline icon--twitter--dark\"\/><\/a>The app can\u2019t trace your contacts if no one else downloads it. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shutterstock.com\/image-photo\/london-uk-august-2020-nhs-covid19-1804521058\">Esther Barry\/Shutterstock<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><figcaption><span class=\"attribution\"\/><\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Apps may not need high download rates to have some impact. A <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ox.ac.uk\/news\/2020-09-03-new-research-shows-tracing-apps-can-save-lives-all-levels-uptake\">second report<\/a> from the Oxford researchers suggested that a well-staffed contact-tracing system that included digital, as well as manual notifications, could reduce infections by 4%-12% and deaths by 2%-15% if just 15% of the population used the app.<\/p>\n<p>Singapore\u2019s Ministry of Health <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-54143015\">claims<\/a> that where it used to take contact-tracing teams four days to identify and quarantine a close contact, the app can enable them to do so in within two days.<\/p>\n<p>But in the real world, downloading the app isn\u2019t the same as using it or, most importantly, responding to warnings to self-isolate if the app tells you you\u2019ve been in contact with an infected person. A UK-government commissioned <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/householdcharacteristics\/homeinternetandsocialmediausage\/articles\/exploringtheuksdigitaldivide\/2019-03-04\">study of more than 30,000 people<\/a> showed that just 18% of people agreed to self-isolate when someone working for the country\u2019s manual contact-tracing system actually called them and explained why. The numbers for an automated message on your people\u2019s phones are likely to be even lower.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Lack_of_trust\"><\/span>Lack of trust<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>So why haven\u2019t contact-tracing apps had more demonstrable success? First, there appears to be a lack of public trust in the <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/technology\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"4\" title=\"Technology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">technology<\/a> and its use of personal data.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier in the year, there was much discussion about whether the apps should upload data to a central database or store it on users\u2019 phones in order to preserve their privacy. Most countries eventually opted for the latter, although France went with the former, less private system (and has reported very low take-up).<\/p>\n<p>England also initially experimented with a centralized model but after <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/englands-new-contact-tracing-app-fixes-privacy-problems-whether-it-will-work-is-another-matter-144617\">much criticism<\/a> and reported difficulties switched to decentralized. However, the loud public debate may have left a permanent negative impression of the efficacy and inherent privacy concerns of government-developed tracking apps.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed there is good reason to be skeptical of the apps\u2019 effectiveness. Most countries (with the exception of Iceland) have also opted to use Bluetooth to record when app users come into contact rather than using GPS to track their specific location, again to protect privacy. But Bluetooth has a number of weaknesses that mean it can record contacts that never happened and miss others that did.<\/p>\n<p>For example, the app might record you coming into contact with someone even if they are on the other side of a partition wall. But if you keep your phone in your back pocket it may not connect with another held by someone standing in front of you.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0239943\">One study<\/a>, which took place on a tram and compared the Italian, Swiss, and German apps, concluded that the technology was very inaccurate, no better than \u201crandomly selecting\u201d people to notify, regardless of proximity. The resulting false alerts have likely added to public confusion and lack of confidence in the tracer apps.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Technology_problem\"><\/span>Technology problem<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Another problem is, of course, that only smartphone owners can use the apps. Given that, in the UK, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/householdcharacteristics\/homeinternetandsocialmediausage\/articles\/exploringtheuksdigitaldivide\/2019-03-04\">61% of over-65s<\/a> don\u2019t have access to a mobile internet device, this means that the largest at-risk group is much less likely to be able to benefit from contact-tracing apps.<\/p>\n<p>One solution to this problem might be to use alternative technology to register people\u2019s contacts. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-54143015\">Singapore has introduced<\/a> a token that can be carried on a lanyard or in the pocket or bag, and that contains technology to enable it to fulfill the same function as a tracing app. New Zealand has also considered a similar \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.stuff.co.nz\/national\/121093089\/government-considering-covid-card-for-contact-tracing\">covid card<\/a>\u201d to circumvent the smartphone issue.<\/p>\n<p>But ultimately, if any of this technology is to have an effect, the only evidence we have suggests it must be part of an effective test and trace system that includes manual contact tracing \u2013 something few countries have yet managed to establish. A tech solution is not always the answer.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" class=\" lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/148397\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><em>This article is republished from <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> by\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/allison-gardner-411212\">Allison Gardner<\/a>, Lecturer in Computer <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Science<\/a>\/Co-founder Women Leading in AI, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/keele-university-1012\">Keele University<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/contact-tracing-apps-theres-no-evidence-theyre-helping-stop-covid-19-148397\">original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more like this article, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/technology\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Technology category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/syndication\/2020\/10\/24\/why-contact-tracing-apps-havent-lived-up-to-expectations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#Why contact-tracing apps haven\u2019t lived up to expectations&#8221; During the first wave of COVID-19, researchers at Oxford University built a computer model that suggested if 56% of the UK downloaded and used a contact-tracing app (alongside other control measures) it could end the epidemic in the country. With the English app only available since September,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/tnw?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2020\/10\/1-16.jpg&signature=87b1195f2e5f4dfcf69f896d28ca7890","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[70937,1356,77039,77040,71615,73274,70759],"class_list":["post-96766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-covid-19","tag-downloadable-content","tag-government-of-the-united-kingdom","tag-infection","tag-mobile-app","tag-tech"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96766","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96766\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}