{"id":97260,"date":"2020-10-25T19:00:29","date_gmt":"2020-10-25T16:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/the-science-of-why-lockdown-barely-affected-global-temperatures\/"},"modified":"2020-10-25T19:00:29","modified_gmt":"2020-10-25T16:00:29","slug":"the-science-of-why-lockdown-barely-affected-global-temperatures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-science-of-why-lockdown-barely-affected-global-temperatures\/","title":{"rendered":"#The science of why lockdown barely affected global temperatures"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a23a2d83279c\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a23a2d83279c\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-science-of-why-lockdown-barely-affected-global-temperatures\/#Climate_and_chemistry\" >Climate and chemistry<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/the-science-of-why-lockdown-barely-affected-global-temperatures\/#The_post-pandemic_climate\" >The post-pandemic climate<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#The <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/sciencee\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"5\" title=\"Science\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">science<\/a> of why lockdown barely affected global temperatures<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n                            Countries across the world took unprecedented action in the first few months of 2020 to control the spread of COVID-19. At its peak, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/sounds\/play\/w172wpksnxdfvk5\">one-third<\/a> of the world\u2019s population was in lockdown. <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-020-0797-x\">Around the world<\/a>, car <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/trip-and-travel\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"Trip &amp; Travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">travel<\/a> fell by 50%, the number of flights plummeted by 75% and industrial activity fell by around 35%.<\/p>\n<p>With so many cars parked, aeroplanes grounded and factories closed, global carbon dioxide (CO\u2082) emissions fell by <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-020-0797-x\">around 17%<\/a> compared with the same period in 2019. But greenhouse gases such as CO\u2082 weren\u2019t the only emissions to fall, and not all pollution heats the planet. Some of the industrial activities that shut down \u2013 particularly heavy industry, including steel and cement making \u2013 also produced <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/centers\/langley\/news\/factsheets\/Aerosols.html\">aerosols<\/a>, which are tiny particles that linger in the atmosphere for weeks and reflect heat from the Sun.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2017JD027411\">Previous studies<\/a> have suggested that if a lot of these industrial processes were to suddenly shut down, it would lead to short-term warming because the atmosphere would lose the reflective effect of aerosols. But as the lockdown <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/coronavirus-lockdowns-effect-on-air-pollution-provides-rare-glimpse-of-low-carbon-future-134685\">cleared skies<\/a>, temperatures didn\u2019t rocket.<\/p>\n<p>[Read:\u00a0<em>What audience intelligence data tells us about the 2020 US presidential election<\/em>]<\/p>\n<p>In <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2020GL090326\">new research<\/a>, we show that lockdown had a negligible effect on global temperatures. So what really h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>ened?<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Climate_and_chemistry\"><\/span>Climate and chemistry<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Sulphur dioxide (SO\u2082) gas is mainly produced in industrial processes that burn coal. In the atmosphere, it reacts to form white sulphate aerosols. These particles offset some of the heating caused by greenhouse gases such as CO\u2082 by reflecting sunlight back into space, in a process known as global dimming. If SO\u2082 were the only pollutant whose emissions fell, we would expect Earth\u2019s temperature to increase.<\/p>\n<p>Soot, otherwise known as black carbon, is also made when burning dirty fuels, and emitted in large quantities from older cars. Since soot is black, it absorbs sunlight and heats the atmosphere. Cars and aeroplanes also emit lots of nitrogen oxides (NO\u2093), gases that <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/scied.ucar.edu\/learn\/about-ozone\">make ozone<\/a> in the lower atmosphere where it acts as a greenhouse gas that warms the planet. Satellite images in March and April showed huge reductions in NO\u2093 over Europe as national lockdowns came into force.<\/p>\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Coronavirus: nitrogen dioxide emissions drop over Italy\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/oHWXjOCDrvY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<p>The different gases and aerosols we emit either contribute to global heating or global dimming. So determining how lockdown affected global temperatures is a matter of finding out which effect dominated.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2020GL090326\">We ran a series<\/a> of computer model simulations of the atmosphere during lockdown, versus what we would have expected if the pandemic had never happened. We fed into the model the best estimates of how much emissions of SO\u2082, black carbon and NO\u2093 fell from industry, transport and aircraft for the period between mid-February and mid-June.<\/p>\n<p>Our model simulations showed that reductions of these different pollutants only had a small and temporary influence on the climate, overall, in part due to their opposing effects. This may sound like a dull conclusion, but it has important lessons.<\/p>\n<p>Which sectors were affected most was hugely important. The largest emissions reductions were in transport, where NO\u2093 and black carbon emissions are particularly high. This largely offset any heating that would otherwise have occurred from the drop in SO\u2082 caused by the slowdown in heavy industry.<\/p>\n<p>The global average temperature saw little change, but there were regional variations. For example, the Middle East was cooler since less black carbon in the air meant the highly reflective desert sand could send more solar energy back out to space. Other regions, such as eastern China, saw more heating overall, as they had some of the largest reductions in industrial SO\u2082 emissions. These differences in heating patterns could affect weather systems, such as <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/acp.copernicus.org\/preprints\/acp-2019-1188\/\">monsoon cycles<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>What we\u2019ve described here are model simulations \u2013 they\u2019re not perfect, but they\u2019re our best method for investigating global atmospheric changes. Simulating the effects of all these different pollutants is difficult. In fact, the struggle to simulate how aerosols affect the climate is one reason we cannot predict exactly <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/scitable\/knowledge\/library\/aerosols-and-their-relation-to-global-climate-102215345\/\">how hot the climate<\/a> will get.<\/p>\n<p>The lockdown offered an invaluable test for our theories about how pollutants affect the climate. From this, we\u2019ll be able to improve our models and make better predictions. We\u2019ll also know better how to plan a strategy that reduces emissions from different sectors without inviting a sudden and sharp increase in global heating.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_post-pandemic_climate\"><\/span>The post-pandemic climate<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The long-term effects of the pandemic on our climate will be determined more by what happens to <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/coronavirus-lockdown-will-have-negligible-impact-on-the-climate-new-study-143503\">long-lived greenhouse gases<\/a>, such as CO\u2082 and methane. These remain in the atmosphere for <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/climatechangeconnection.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/GWP_AR4.pdf\">centuries and decades<\/a> respectively, compared to a few days to weeks for NO\u2093, SO\u2082 and black carbon. CO\u2082 emissions dropped during lockdown, but not enough to stop levels <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.severe-weather.eu\/news\/global-co2-high-covid-2020-fa\/\">in the atmosphere<\/a> growing. Global heating won\u2019t stop <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/2013\/02\/how-big-is-the-climate-change-deficit\/\">until emissions reach zero<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It may seem daunting that the near shutdown of society didn\u2019t cause a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/why-co2-isnt-falling-more-during-a-global-lockdown\/\">big enough reduction<\/a> in emissions to stop climate change. But this just shows the limits of doing less of the stuff we normally do, instead of changing how our economies and infrastructure are powered. While lockdown measures have brought temporary reductions in emissions, there are better ways of doing this that cause less harm to society and people.<\/p>\n<p>Only a decisive shift from fossil fuels will stabilize global temperatures. That\u2019s why the decisions <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-020-0883-0\">governments take<\/a> to revive economic growth after COVID-19 will be pivotal. The 2008 financial crisis caused a similar slowdown, but <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nclimate1332\">emissions soon rebounded<\/a> as a direct result of economic rescue packages which invested heavily in fossil fuels. We cannot afford to make the same mistake again.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" class=\" lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/148129\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" data-lazy=\"true\"\/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><em>This article is republished from <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/scott-archer-nicholls-1166589\">Scott Archer-Nicholls<\/a>, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Atmospheric Science, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-cambridge-1283\">University of Cambridge<\/a> and <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/james-weber-1168877\">James Weber<\/a>, PhD Candidate in Atmospheric Chemistry, Pembroke College, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-cambridge-1283\">University of Cambridge<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-lockdown-had-little-to-no-effect-on-global-temperatures-148129\">original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more like this article, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/technology\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Technology category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/syndication\/2020\/10\/25\/the-science-of-why-lockdown-barely-affected-global-temperatures\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;#The science of why lockdown barely affected global temperatures&#8221; Countries across the world took unprecedented action in the first few months of 2020 to control the spread of COVID-19. At its peak, one-third of the world\u2019s population was in lockdown. Around the world, car travel fell by 50%, the number of flights plummeted by 75%&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":97261,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/img-cdn.tnwcdn.com\/image\/tnw?filter_last=1&fit=1280,640&url=https:\/\/cdn0.tnwcdn.com\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/2020\/10\/image-2-12.png&signature=b6acc7564038bc7e0b8cfbbc4e12cad2","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[77143,77144,67243,71471,67821],"class_list":["post-97260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-climate","tag-global-temperatures","tag-lockdown","tag-travel","tag-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97261"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}