{"id":99517,"date":"2020-10-28T16:18:00","date_gmt":"2020-10-28T13:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/opinion-what-should-a-smart-investor-do-now\/"},"modified":"2020-10-28T16:18:00","modified_gmt":"2020-10-28T13:18:00","slug":"opinion-what-should-a-smart-investor-do-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/opinion-what-should-a-smart-investor-do-now\/","title":{"rendered":"#\n  Opinion: What should a smart investor do now?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_84 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2f1d05b3d32\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #dd3333;color:#dd3333\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-6a2f1d05b3d32\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/opinion-what-should-a-smart-investor-do-now\/#Were_on_the_brink_of_monumental_change%E2%80%94arent_we\" >We\u2019re on the brink of monumental change\u2014aren\u2019t we?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/opinion-what-should-a-smart-investor-do-now\/#Wondering_what_to_do_with_your_money\" >Wondering what to do with your money?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/opinion-what-should-a-smart-investor-do-now\/#Paul_A_Merriman\" >Paul A. Merriman<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>#<br \/>\n  Opinion: What should a smart investor do now?<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"article__subhead\" itemprop=\"alternativeHeadline\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Were_on_the_brink_of_monumental_change%E2%80%94arent_we\"><\/span>\n  We\u2019re on the brink of monumental change\u2014aren\u2019t we?<br \/>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000047266\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\" class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\">\n<div class=\"barrons-main-article-ad-target sticky_target body_ad\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div data-layout=\"inline\n              \" data-layout-mobile=\"\" class=\"\n        media-object\n        type-InsetMediaIllustration\n          inline\n  article__inset\n        article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n          article__inset--inline\n  \"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        renoImageFormat-\n        img-inline\n        article__inset__image\n      \" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding-bottom:70.07812499999999%;\" data-mobile-ratio=\"70.07812499999999%\" data-layout-ratio=\"70.07812499999999%\" data-subtype=\"\" class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250636?width=140&amp;size=1.4269788182831662 140w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250636?width=540&amp;size=1.4269788182831662 540w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250636?width=620&amp;size=1.4269788182831662 620w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250636?width=700&amp;size=1.4269788182831662 700w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250636?width=860&amp;size=1.4269788182831662 860w,\nhttps:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250636?width=1260&amp;size=1.4269788182831662 1260w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 140px) 100px,\n(max-width: 540px) 500px,\n(max-width: 620px) 580px,\n(max-width: 700px) 660px,\n(max-width: 860px) 820px,\n1260px\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250636?width=620&amp;size=1.4269788182831662\" data-enlarge=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-250636?width=1260&amp;size=1.4269788182831662\" alt=\"\" title=\"Wondering what to do with your money? \"><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\" itemprop=\"caption\">\n<h4 class=\"wsj-article-caption-content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Wondering_what_to_do_with_your_money\"><\/span>Wondering what to do with your money? <span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>      <span class=\"wsj-article-credit article__inset__image__caption__credit\" itemprop=\"creator\"><br \/>\n            Courtesy Everett Collection<br \/>\n          <\/span><br \/>\n  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>       I\u2019ve been getting some questions lately that make me think investors are unusually nervous and don\u2019t know what to do.<\/p>\n<p> There\u2019s a sense that we are on the brink of some monumental change \u2014 obviously related to the presidential election \u2014 that will have huge implications. <\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n       The questions come down to this: \u201cWhen I know something big is<br \/>\nabout to h<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/download-scripts-themes-apps\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"9\" title=\"Download Scripts &amp; Themes &amp; Apps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">app<\/a>en, but I don\u2019t know what it is, what is the prudent thing to do<br \/>\nwith my investments?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s look at three possible answers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Here\u2019s the short answer<\/strong>: There\u2019s absolutely no way to know. So don\u2019t do a thing. Just stay put.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Here\u2019s the slightly longer answer (which could be regarded as sarcastic but in fact is perfectly rational):<\/strong> Come back one year from today, and I\u2019ll tell you what you should have done this week.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Here\u2019s the answer Wall Street might give:<\/strong> Your fears and uncertainty are warranted. Our experts have studied this, and they have some great solutions. Hire this manager. Buy this product. Do it right now.<\/p>\n<p>The uncertainty revolves around the presidential election more than anything else. But there\u2019s also the pandemic. There\u2019s the major shift taking place in the way people live, work, and spend. There\u2019s climate change. There\u2019s the Supreme Court. Civil unrest and mistrust of institutions.<\/p>\n<p>Read: Have seniors turned on Trump? <\/p>\n<div id=\"cx-membership-tile\"><\/div>\n<p>For many years I was an investment adviser, and one of my clients was named John, an elderly man from Louisville, Ky., and one of the nicest people I have known.<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes I would get a phone call from John, and he\u2019d start out: \u201cPaul, are you happy with the way things are going?\u201d When I heard that, I knew right away he was red-hot upset about something. <\/p>\n<p>Read: 401(k) and IRA changes coming in 2021<\/p>\n<p>On Nov. 4, 1992, the morning after the presidential election, John called, and this time he wasn\u2019t that subtle. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cSell everything,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019m not going to have my money in<br \/>\nthe market as long as Bill Clinton is running the country. This is going to be<br \/>\na disaster.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I stayed on the phone with John for nearly an hour, trying to convince him that turning his portfolio into cash was not the right thing to do \u2014 even though that could have turned out to be the right move. (There\u2019s that \u201ccome back in a year\u201d response again.)<\/p>\n<p>John finally calmed down and agreed to sit tight, though he probably wasn\u2019t totally happy about it \u2014 at least until the stock market took off and (in 1993) began seven straight years of gains that amounted to a long bull market.<\/p>\n<p>During Clinton\u2019s presidency, 1993 through 2000, the U.S. stock market, measured by the S&amp;P 500 index<br \/>\n        SPX,<br \/>\n        <bg-quote field=\"percentchange\" format=\"0,000.00%\" channel=\"\/zigman2\/quotes\/210599714\/realtime\" class=\"negative\">-2.64%<\/bg-quote><span>,<\/span><br \/>\n       compounded at an astonishing rate of 21.5%. <\/p>\n<p>So in that case, staying put with his investments turned out to<br \/>\nbe the right thing for John to do. In the coming years, he and his family benefited<br \/>\nfrom his decision to set aside his fears and do nothing.<\/p>\n<p>Fast forward to 2020: Obviously we don\u2019t know the results of the<br \/>\npresidential election. If the result calls for a transition, we don\u2019t have any<br \/>\nassurance that it will happen peacefully. <\/p>\n<p>But surely, some people have told me, we should be able to<br \/>\npredict which election outcome is likely to be better for the market. <\/p>\n<p>My response: If this is so obvious, somebody should be able to tell me in a convincing way. Yet nobody has been able to do that.<\/p>\n<p>Read: Can Trump or Biden fix <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/social-mediaa\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"1\" title=\"Social Media\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Social<\/a> Security?<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve known for decades that Wall Street (this also goes for the<br \/>\nfinancial media) always has an \u201cA List\u201d of reasons to be an optimist and an<br \/>\nequally plausible \u201cB List\u201d of reasons for pessimism. <\/p>\n<p>These lists allow pundits and commentators to sound pretty smart<br \/>\nno matter what they are being asked to explain.<\/p>\n<p>Investors have a hard time dealing with the fact that both those<br \/>\nlists are ALWAYS there, ALWAYS up-to-date, and ALWAYS sound wise. <\/p>\n<p>Right now there\u2019s undoubtedly an \u201cA List\u201d and a \u201cB List\u201d<br \/>\nassociated with each possible outcome of the presidential election. <\/p>\n<p>You can argue that the market is sure to improve if the election goes one way \u2014 and you can argue that it\u2019s sure to improve if it goes the other way. <\/p>\n<p>The closest I can come to navigating this by remembering that in<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/general\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"3\" title=\"General\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">general<\/a>, the stock market does not like great uncertainty. Once the future is<br \/>\nbetter known, maybe investors will be more confident. (But no matter what, SOME<br \/>\ninvestors will want to do what my client John wanted to do: sell everything.)<\/p>\n<p>None of this is much help in answering the original question:<br \/>\nWhen you have no idea what\u2019s going to happen, what should you do?<\/p>\n<p>If I were still an adviser, my answer to clients would be pretty simple. <\/p>\n<p>First, if you have a sound investment plan, stick with it.<\/p>\n<p>Second, if you don\u2019t have a sound investment plan, get one. It<br \/>\nshould be a plan that\u2019s likely to do well over the long term no matter what<br \/>\nhappens. <\/p>\n<p>If that\u2019s too boring, here\u2019s a thought experiment for you. <\/p>\n<p>Imagine it\u2019s the start of a calendar year and somehow you get<br \/>\nthe rock-solid knowledge about five major things that will happen in the next<br \/>\n10 months:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>\n      With little or no warning, a pandemic will spread across the United States, killing more than 220,000 Americans, leaving millions upon millions of people feeling fearful and helpless.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Hundreds of thousands of small businesses will go under. The majority of big-city office space will suddenly become vacant as people work from home.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      Schools and colleges will be forced to drastically rethink how they educate young people, many of whom will be unable to attend classes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      A level of civil unrest not seen in a generation will roll across American cities. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n      With no end (and no vaccine) in sight to the pandemic, and with the nominees expressing polar opposite views about it, Americans will face the most unusual presidential election in modern history.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Faced with that knowledge, what would you expect from the stock<br \/>\nmarket for the following 10 months?<\/p>\n<p>After you\u2019ve figured out your answer, check your own investment<br \/>\nreturns for 2020 to date, and see how you have done.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, make a note to remind me about this topic in November<br \/>\n2021. At that time I\u2019ll be able to give you a terrific answer to the question<br \/>\nof what you should do right now in the autumn of 2020.<\/p>\n<p><em>Want more insight? Here\u2019s a link to <a rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/_X3GHi6CWrw\" class=\"icon none\">the best investment video I\u2019ve ever seen<\/a>. The presentation in this webinar is called \u201cSimple and Effective Balanced Portfolios for Lifetime Investing Success.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Richard Buck contributed to this article<\/em>. <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"byline article__byline\">\n<p>      <span>By<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"author  hasMenu\" data-scrim='{\"type\":\"author\",\"header\":\"Paul A. Merriman\",\"subhead\":\"The Wall Street Journal\",\"list\":[]}' itemscope itemprop=\"author\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/Person\">\n<h4 itemprop=\"name\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Paul_A_Merriman\"><\/span>Paul A. Merriman<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For forums sites go to <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/forum.buradabiliyorum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forum.BuradaBiliyorum.Com<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>If you want to read more <a href=\"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/category\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"News\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">News<\/a> articles, you can visit our <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.buradabiliyorum.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">News category.<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: black;\"><a style=\"color: #ff9900;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story.asp?guid=%7B21004575-02D4-D4B5-4572-DB8A26D3235A%7D&#038;siteid=rss&#038;rss=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Source<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;# Opinion: What should a smart investor do now? &#8221; We\u2019re on the brink of monumental change\u2014aren\u2019t we? Wondering what to do with your money? Courtesy Everett Collection I\u2019ve been getting some questions lately that make me think investors are unusually nervous and don\u2019t know what to do. There\u2019s a sense that we are on&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99518,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70897],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99517\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buradabiliyorum.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}