Our college football betting writer offers best picks and predictions for the Big Ten Championship game between Michigan and Purdue, scheduled to air live Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

Michigan (12-0) rides into Indianapolis, Illinois, and points toward the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season after an unceremonious beatdown of rival Ohio State. The unbeaten Wolverines draw Big Ten West winner Purdue, which finished 8-4 and promises to play like it has nothing to lose.

Michigan vs. Purdue picks for the Big 10 Championship

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Michigan vs. Purdue predictions and analysis

All that stands between Michigan and the College Football Playoff semifinals is a stubborn Purdue team that stands atop the heap from a milquetoast Big Ten West division with no legitimate title contender. Purdue did beat Illinois, who appeared to be the best of the lot at midseason, and the Fighting Illini nearly tipped the Wolverines in Ann Arbor last month.

Michigan takes the field without running back and Heisman Trophy contender Blake Corum, who is done for the season with a knee injury.

Michigan -17

Let’s face it: Purdue doesn’t get anyone excited when framed against conference championship matchups that rate highly with a national audience. The Boilermakers do have some credentials historically and are 7-6 in the past five years against ranked opponents.

But Michigan is a class above, not only in reputation but in record and resume this season, even without Corum. He was a bit part player in last week’s win over Ohio State in which Michigan powered to victory with big plays in a dominant second half.

Donovan Edwards more than filled the void without Corum, rushing for 216 yards, including scoring runs of 75 and 85 yards in the fourth quarter.

In a similar spot last year, Michigan mauled Iowa, 42-3, in a no-doubter that set up a New Year’s Eve game with Georgia.

This one is all Michigan with a championship semifinal spot on the line for the Wolverines.

Pick: Michigan to cover -17

Betting on College Football?

Purdue first half +9.5

Purdue could have a slight edge with Lafayette an easy cruise down the interstate from Indianapolis and emotion can play a role. Also consider Michigan became accustomed to sparring matches in the first half this season and trailed Ohio State last week, and that only furthered a season trend.

The first half, mind you, has not been Michigan’s forte. Michigan led Illinois 7-3, trailed Rutgers 17-14 at half before winning 52-17, was up just 13-7 on Michigan State (won 29-7), trailed Penn State 14-6 (won 41-17), was tied with Indiana at 10 (won 31-10), led Maryland 17-13 (won 34-27).

Pick: Purdue to cover first half +9.5

JJ McCarthy over 14.5 rushing yards

The last time J.J. McCarthy threw an interception was six games ago, Oct. 15 vs. Penn State, and he tossed three touchdowns without a pick last week against the Buckeyes. Without Corum, McCarthy isn’t riding solo against the Purdue defense, but he is deeply programmed to avoid mistakes.

In another massive game on a national stage, he’ll be ready to tuck and run against play-it-safe Purdue, leading to chunk scramble plays and possibly a career rushing day. Given the low total rushing projection of 14.5, note McCarthy has six games with a long run of 14 or more yards (19 last week vs. OSU).

Pick: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy over 14.5 rushing yards

Michigan vs. Purdue odds