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“#338Canada: Trudeau’s election to lose” Philippe J. Fournier: A majority is within reach for the Liberals, but the NDP’s current level of support could yet throw a wrench into their plans After months of speculation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has finally decided to push all his chip in the electoral pot, betting that his handling…
“#Seat cluster poll: The Liberals consolidate their advantage” Analysis by Innovative Research Group shows key regional advantages for the Liberals. They might explain why Trudeau thinks he can win a majority Why is Justin Trudeau preparing to call an election when most pollsters say he’s not in majority territory? Maybe it’s folly that will lead…
“#Jagmeet Singh and the case for second chances” It ought to be noted by somebody that NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is going into this stupid, cynical, unnecessary federal election that nobody actually wants looking pretty damn strong. The polls have remained remarkably static, but what glimmers of insight that can be gained suggest an NDP…
“#Federal election 2021: Know your pollsters” In his best-selling book Cracking the Quebec Code, Jean-Marc Léger wrote “Political polls make for about 1% of all my revenues, but account to 99% of my problems.” So, why do it then? For many market-research firms, political polling serves as an efficient way to promote their brand, attract customers…
“#A fall election? The Liberals may not get a better window.” Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338Canada model suggests it will be a challenge for the Liberals to win a majority, and it’s unlikely to get any easier Who is in the mood for a general election in Canada this fall? Not many of us,…
“#Poll: Stephen Harper would change this election” Paul Wells: If Harper returned to once again lead the Conservatives, it would cut the Liberal advantage by two-thirds, and a rout starts to look more like a race We don’t spend enough time indulging hypotheticals. “That would never happen,” as a reason not to think about something,…
“#O’Toole needs principles, not miracles” Andrew MacDougall: To flip a losing script, the Conservatives should do the hard yards of defending the principles liberals used to hold dear Andrew MacDougall is a director at Trafalgar Strategy, and a former Head of Communications to Prime Minister Stephen Harper If you’ve any doubt being Leader of the…
“#Mary Simon and the PM’s winning conditions” Paul Wells: The newly named Governor General has been a pillar of many Canadian communities and now will be again of another. She’s needed and ready. Reading from notes during a brief news conference Tuesday morning at the Canadian Museum of History—which is good! Caution is good!—Mary Simon…
“#338Canada: The Conservatives keep falling behind” Philippe J. Fournier: The latest round of polling suggests the Tories are getting pulled down by an unpopular leader, putting the Liberals in solid majority territory In what was probably the last round of federal polling until the summer break (and perhaps until the writ is drawn up in…
“#Below the national numbers, big Liberal advantage” A new large-sample public-opinion survey that permits detailed examination of close races suggests the federal Liberals are well-positioned to make seat gains, as Justin Trudeau decides whether to call an election campaign that could begin as early as this summer. “The message from this survey for the Liberals…