Kalshi users are botting streams now

Late last week, Spotify revised its U.S. chart rankings, cutting 500,000 fraudulent streams for “Earrings” by Malcolm Todd, knocking its chart position from #1 to #4. The move came in response to public outcry over unusual betting activity on Kalshi, one of the major prediction markets.

The skewed streaming activity was initially publicized by Caleb Davies, a frequent bettor and music aficionado, and first reported by Financial Times last week. The botted streaming activity appears to be wholly unconnected to Malcolm Todd or his label; Todd’s song was likely chosen by the perpetrator for a combination of factors that made it seem easier to manipulate and sufficiently profitable.

The situation highlights how prediction markets are creeping into every facet of our lives – and influencing the charts in the process. Per a recent report by The Times, the total amount wagered on Polymarket and Kalshi this June hit $25 billion, compared to less than $5 billion in June 2025. This spring, Kalshi cofounder Luana Lopes Lara said that $500 million had been wagered on the platform’s music-related bets over a span of roughly three and a half months.

While Spotify ultimately revised the numbers on their platform, and assured WIRED that no royalty payouts were affected by the falsified streams, Kalshi’s prediction markets had already resolved to pay “winners” and “losers.” Given the public scrutiny, it seems likely the platform will reimburse bettors who erroneously lost money. A representative told WIRED that the platform was in talks with Spotify about the specific case, and Spotify has pushed both Kalshi and its primary competitor Polymarket to remove Spotify’s branding from their products in the wake of the incident.

Documented cases of outright fraud have remained few and far between to date, but prediction markets for music streaming in particular seem uniquely vulnerable to future fraud given the comparatively low cost and high accessibility of botting and streamfarms. With some capital and know-how, you could hypothetically bot streams from anywhere with a strong enough internet connection and win big.

And even if streaming providers and prediction markets alike find ways to firmly root out fraudulent streaming activity as it relates to the betting markets, everyday music fans will still be trading against industry players with an inside track on upcoming GRAMMY nominations or raw streaming data, among others. In fact, depending on who you ask, insider trading is actually a feature of prediction markets, a way for money at stake to signal which outcome is more likely (though I can’t imagine contributing to Kalshi’s overall prediction rate feels particularly good for anyone on the losing side of their own specific wager).

For Kalshi’s part, they’ve said their restrictions on insider trading go beyond the scope of what is legally required; by comparison, Polymarket is currently under fire from the DOJ for being too permissive, suggesting that while the Trump administration has been broadly friendly to prediction markets, it’s not a total free for all. But as trading volume on these platforms continues to grow, we’ll be seeing more and more people who think they’re smart enough to game the system. Even if this initial case involving “Earrings” by Malcolm Todd was handled sloppily, it’s not too difficult to imagine a better executed iteration of this scheme succeeding under the radar; it might have happened already.