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“338Canada: The by-election that could break the Parti Québécois” Philippe J. Fournier: In an April 11 by-election, the PQ will battle for one of its last seats. To lose the former stronghold could threaten the survival of the party. On April 11, voters of Marie-Victorin, a Quebec provincial electoral district in the heart of Longueuil,…
“338Canada: A tale of two premiers” Philippe J. Fournier: A few years ago, Francois Legault and Jason Kenney were making history. Today, only one of them is sure to survive their next election. When Jason Kenney lead his brand new United Conservative Party to a decisive majority victory in April 2019, some observers (yours truly…
“338Canada: Trumpism is alive and well on Canada’s right” Philippe J. Fournier: Almost two years and a failed insurrection later, a significant number of Canadian Conservatives still support former president Trump In the waning days of the 2020 U.S. presidential campaign, Léger conducted a poll to take the pulse of Canadian voters on the tightly…
“338Canada: Jean Charest’s (near) impossible task” Philippe J. Fournier: Charest may need to recruit as many as 100,000 new members—or 1,000 per day—to stand any chance in the leadership race Throughout his political career, Jean Charest was never known to shy away from challenges: From taking over the reins of the decimated federal Progressive Conservatives…
“#338Canada: A new era of Quebec politics” Philippe J. Fournier: The dominant parties of the past 60 years, the Quebec Liberals and the PQ, continue their decline in public opinion. It’s all CAQ now. A new Quebec poll from Léger was released on Wednesday, and while these fresh numbers indicate that François Legault’s CAQ still…
“#Poilievre is the favourite, but his potential for growth is limited: 338Canada” Philippe J. Fournier: He may be on his way to a coronation, but Pierre Poilievre as CPC leader would not have an immediate dramatic effect on the federal numbers The Conservative Party of Canada is (once again) entering a leadership race after Erin…
“#338Canada: Erin O’Toole is trapped” Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservative leader’s latest personal popularity numbers are bleak, inside and outside his party Erin O’Toole has been leader of the Conservative Party for close to 18 months now, and during his leadership the only time his favourability numbers showed any sign of improvement was the two-week…
“#338Canada: Who can best challenge Doug Ford in June? Polls disagree.” Philippe J. Fournier: The PCs still have the edge in our latest projection, but a collection of diverging polls suggest public opinion is in flux With the Ontario provincial election campaign expected to be launched this spring, the state of the race between the…
“#338Canada: Who’s still angry at Ottawa” Philippe J. Fournier: A new survey looking at federal-provincial attitudes suggests that even in Quebec and Alberta, regional resentment is not on the rise From a strictly political point of view, the pandemic may have acted as a political stress test for provincial-federal relations in Canada. In the past…
“#338Canada: The Quebec Liberals in free-fall” Philippe J. Fournier: The party could lose as many as 14 seats compared to its 2018 results, and be driven out of French-speaking Quebec As we enter an election year in Quebec, not only does François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) lead in voting intentions, but its lead over…