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“#338Canada: The Liberals stumble out of the gate in week one” Philippe J. Fournier: After one week, our projection shows the race tightening, support for the NDP growing and the odds of a Liberal majority shrinking The first of this five-week campaign has come and gone. Even though many observers have described the past seven…
“#338Canada: The Liberals cannot afford voter apathy” Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus survey points to growing pessimism with the government. It is not a reassuring sign for Justin Trudeau and his team. Dissatisfaction with the federal government is on the rise, according to the newest poll from Abacus Data, which was on the field…
“#338Canada: What did the polls say in 2019?” Philippe J. Fournier: In their final federal polls of the 2019 campaign, Canada’s pollsters did very well. The miss was largely in underestimating the Conservatives. As this summer election campaign gets under way, let us walk down memory lane to pre-pandemic times, and look back at what…
“#Federal election 2021: Where might Trudeau be most vulnerable? And other big questions.” Philippe J. Fournier doesn’t want to sound cynical. “But the reason we’re having a fall election is because the Liberals want to have a majority,” says the political polling analyst from 338Canada. “This will be the focal point of the election.” With…
“#Federal election 2021: Know your pollsters” In his best-selling book Cracking the Quebec Code, Jean-Marc Léger wrote “Political polls make for about 1% of all my revenues, but account to 99% of my problems.” So, why do it then? For many market-research firms, political polling serves as an efficient way to promote their brand, attract customers…
“#A fall election? The Liberals may not get a better window.” Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338Canada model suggests it will be a challenge for the Liberals to win a majority, and it’s unlikely to get any easier Who is in the mood for a general election in Canada this fall? Not many of us,…
“#The splintering of the right in Alberta: 338Canada” Phillippe J. Fournier: The latest Alberta election projection puts the NDP in majority territory, with mounting evidence the UCP’s 2019 path to victory won’t work in 2023 When Mainstreet Research released its latest Alberta poll in May showing the Wildrose Independence Party in third place with 17…
“#338Canada: A summer election would be a risky bet for the Liberals” Philippe J. Fournier: The latest federal election projection shows the Liberals falling short of a majority, with an outcome eerily similar to the results of the 2019 election If rumours swirling around Parliament Hill in Ottawa are true, then Canadians will be called…
“#338Canada: The total dominance of François Legault” Philippe J. Fournier: In our latest projection, the CAQ party has more safe seats than the threshold for a majority. Meanwhile, the PQ continues to disintegrate. François Legault’s dominance of the Quebec political landscape has not faded one iota since last winter according to a new Léger poll…
“#338Canada: What is left of the Orange Wave in Quebec? Not much.” Philippe J. Fournier: Ten years ago, the NDP won a remarkable 59 seats in Quebec. In our latest election projection, the party is at risk of losing its lone seat in the province. I had friends over for drinks and pizza. We all…