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“#Erin O’Toole’s numbers fall back to pre-election levels: 338Canada” Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus poll shows the Tory leader’s approval numbers have nosedived since the election, pointing to challenges ahead for the party The first session of the 44th Parliament (finally) began last week, almost two months after September’s general election. While voting intentions…
“#338Canada: Valérie Plante takes the lead in Montreal” Philippe J. Fournier: For the first time since fall 2020, a poll puts Plante ahead of Denis Coderre in the mayoral race, with all the momentum in the campaign’s final day We shall know on Sunday night whether Montreal voters will re-elect incumbent mayor Valérie Plante for…
“#338Canada: Will Jason Kenney sink the UCP experiment?” Philippe J. Fournier: The latest projection shows that if an election where held now, the UCP would be nearly swept out of urban Alberta and even lose some of its rural base Alberta’s equalization referendum has come and gone, and although the top-line results appear to significantly…
“#338Canada: Doug Ford’s election advantage” Philippe J. Fournier: An early look at the Ontario election projection shows dramatically different numbers from 2018, but the PCs still benefitting from a divided opposition We may still be eight months away from the 2022 Ontario general election, but it sure feels like the pre-campaign has already begun. Shortly…
“#338Canada: The final polls are in, and they point to a slim Liberal victory” Philippe J. Fournier: It’s no sure win for the Liberals but the final 338Canada vote projection puts them at 146 seats (11 fewer than 2019), and the Conservatives at 127 —Since the dissolution of the House of Commons on Aug. 15,…
“#338Canada: Was Legault’s endorsement a blessing or a curse for Erin O’Toole?” Philippe J. Fournier: With seven days to go, the Liberals now hold the edge. But a big question mark will be the impact of the Quebec premier’s backing of the CPC. We did not actually believe that Quebec Premier François Legault was going…
“#338Canada: The Liberals stop the bleeding, at least” Philippe J. Fournier: The latest election projection shows the two main parties deadlocked, though the Conservatives remain the favourites to win the most seats Three weeks of this snap five-week federal campaign are now behind us. While the first two weeks were marked by a gradual and constant…
“#Federal election 2021: Polls show O’Toole is the favourite. Voters don’t seem convinced.” Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives are ahead, say the polls. But they also tell us that many voters believe Justin Trudeau will remain in power after the election. Last week, the three polling firms that have surveyed Canadians daily since the start…
“#Federal election 2021: What the polls are saying at the halfway mark” Philippe J. Fournier, who teaches astrophysics in Cégep de Saint-Laurent, in Montreal, discovered a passion for political prognostication while watching the American presidential election of 2016, when he observed a hardening consensus around a Hillary Clinton victory that he didn’t believe was supported…
“#338Canada: The Conservatives surge, the Liberals slide” Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338 projection shows the Liberals falling two seats per day since the campaign began. The Conservatives are the new favourites. It was (another) difficult week for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in public opinion polls. The trends we observed in the first week of this…